Persebaya Surabaya vs Persijap prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Persebaya Surabaya to win: 78%, about 4 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three make Persebaya firm favourites, landing near the published 78% home number. The split is on goals: the Coach sees Persijap's 2.14 conceded per game pushing the over above the published 60%, while the Sceptic notes both sides' 29% over-2.5 rates and leans just under it.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Persebaya Surabaya's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPersebaya score 1.75 per game at home; Persijap concede 2.14 per game and have kept no clean sheets. Persijap have failed to score in 57% of matches, so both teams score at 43% feels fair. The league averages 2.89 goals per match.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureA 7th-placed host against a side with one point all season
Persebaya sit 7th on 12 points from 7 games; Persijap are 18th with 1 point from 7. Persijap have lost their last 3 away games, conceding 10. Persebaya have 4 days' rest after 3 games in 14 days; Persijap have 6 days.
Persebaya Surabaya: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks right, but the goals line may be a touch high
Persebaya's matches go over 2.5 goals only 29% of the time, and Persijap's 29% too, yet the published over 2.5 sits at 60%. Persijap fail to score in 57% of games, which caps goal volume. The 78% home number matches the form gap well.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Persebaya Surabaya are clear favourites at 78%, with Persijap on 7% and the draw on 15%. Persebaya Surabaya are 7th and Persijap 18th in Liga 1 Indonesia. In their last five league games, Persebaya Surabaya won two and Persijap none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Persebaya Surabaya win or draw
- 92%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- Persijap win or draw
- 22%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 38%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 43%
- No
- 57%
We expect about 2.5 goals from Persebaya Surabaya and 0.6 from Persijap. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 3–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 78% | 15% | 8% | Stats preview | #2070 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Persebaya Surabaya: last 6
WLDWDW · 8 scored, 5 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Persepam Madura Utd | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | at PSM Makassar | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs PSS Sleman | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Isenmulang Kalteng | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Garudayaksa | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs PSIM Yogyakarta | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WDDW
Persijap: last 6
DLLLLL · 3 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Java United | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Oct | at Dewa United | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Oct | vs Isenmulang Kalteng | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Bali United | 1–6 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Persib Bandung | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Pusamania Borneo | 0–1 | L |
Last 3 away: LLL
Season stats
| Persebaya Surabaya | Persijap | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 0.43 |
| 0.86 | Goals conceded per game | 2.14 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 29% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 57% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Liga 1 Indonesia table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Persib Bandung | 7 | +3 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 5 | Persepam Madura Utd | 7 | +2 | 13 | LWDLW |
| 6 | Persita | 6 | +3 | 12 | DWWDW |
| 7 | Persebaya Surabaya | 7 | +3 | 12 | WLDWD |
| 8 | Bhayangkara FC | 7 | +3 | 11 | DWDDW |
| 9 | Persik Kediri | 7 | +2 | 10 | LWLWD |
| 10 | Arema FC | 7 | +2 | 9 | WLLDD |
| … | |||||
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 7 | -3 | 4 | LLDWL |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | -9 | 3 −2 | DDWLL |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | -8 | 2 | DLLLL |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Persijap
- 240 km
- Rest days
- Persebaya Surabaya 4Persijap 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Persebaya Surabaya 3 · Persijap 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 27°C · wind 4 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Liga 1 Indonesia average: 2.89 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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