Arema FC vs Bali United prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bali to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The home split of 11 scored in four and shared six-day rest keeps Arema live. On goals, Arema's 86% over rate and leaky defence back the 65% over line, so the published numbers mostly hold up.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky attacks point to goals at both ends in Malang.
Both sides ship goals, so an open match looks the natural read.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird visits tenth, and the hosts' home run keeps this competitive.
Bali sit 3rd on 13 points from 7 games with a 20-8 goal record, while Arema are 10th on 9 points. Both teams had the same 6-day rest, so freshness is even.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongBali's 52% looks generous given how blunt they are on the road.
Arema's home record of W D D W and 2.75 scored per game there argues the gap is nearer even than the prices say. Over 2.5 at 65% sits fine with Arema's 86% over rate.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Bali United are favourites at 52%, with Arema FC on 24% and the draw on 24%. Arema FC are 10th and Bali United 3rd in Liga 1 Indonesia. In their last five league games, Arema FC won one and Bali United two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Arema FC win or draw
- 48%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Bali United win or draw
- 76%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Arema FC and 2.0 from Bali United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 0–2 (7%), 0–1 (7%), 1–3 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% | 24% | 52% | Stats preview | #2073 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Arema FC: last 6
WLLDDD · 12 scored, 14 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Dewa United | 4–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | at Persija | 1–5 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Garudayaksa | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Bhayangkara FC | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Persik Kediri | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at PSM Makassar | 3–3 | D |
Last 4 at home: WDDW
Bali United: last 6
DWLWLW · 18 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Persita | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Oct | vs Garudayaksa | 5–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | at Java United | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Persijap | 6–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Pusamania Borneo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Isenmulang Kalteng | 4–1 | W |
Last 3 away: DLL
Season stats
| Arema FC | Bali United | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.29 | Goals scored per game | 2.86 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.14 |
| 2.75 | Scored per game at home | 4.25 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 86% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Liga 1 Indonesia table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 7 | +11 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 2 | Dewa United | 7 | +2 | 14 | LWDWW |
| 3 | Bali United | 7 | +12 | 13 | DWLWL |
| 4 | Persib Bandung | 7 | +3 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 5 | Persepam Madura Utd | 7 | +2 | 13 | LWDLW |
| 6 | Persita | 6 | +3 | 12 | DWWDW |
| 7 | Persebaya Surabaya | 7 | +3 | 12 | WLDWD |
| 8 | Bhayangkara FC | 7 | +3 | 11 | DWDDW |
| 9 | Persik Kediri | 7 | +2 | 10 | LWLWD |
| 10 | Arema FC | 7 | +2 | 9 | WLLDD |
| 11 | Pusamania Borneo | 6 | -1 | 9 | WLWLW |
| 12 | PSM Makassar | 7 | -3 | 9 | DWWLD |
| 13 | Java United | 7 | +0 | 7 −2 | DDWWL |
Match context
- Travel for Bali United
- 303 km
- -1 h time zone
- Rest days
- Arema FC 6Bali United 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Arema FC 2 · Bali United 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 27°C · wind 7 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Liga 1 Indonesia average: 2.89 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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