PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Persebaya Surabaya to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52% · bookies 52% · ✓ 1 goals
In short
Persebaya Surabaya are favourites at 46%, with PSM Makassar on 26% and the draw on 28%. PSM Makassar are 13th and Persebaya Surabaya 8th in Liga 1 Indonesia. In their last five league games, PSM Makassar won one and Persebaya Surabaya two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- PSM Makassar win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Persebaya Surabaya win or draw
- 74%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.1 goals from PSM Makassar and 1.5 from Persebaya Surabaya. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% | 28% | 46% | Stats preview | #445 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
PSM Makassar: last 5
WLDDL · 8 scored, 12 conceded
| 16 Oct | at PSIM Yogyakarta | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at PSS Sleman | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Persita | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Arema FC | 3–3 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Persib Bandung | 1–3 | L |
Last 2 at home: DD
Persebaya Surabaya: last 5
DWDWD · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs PSS Sleman | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Isenmulang Kalteng | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Garudayaksa | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs PSIM Yogyakarta | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Bhayangkara FC | 1–1 | D |
Last 2 away: WD
Season stats
| PSM Makassar | Persebaya Surabaya | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored per game | 1.20 |
| 2.40 | Goals conceded per game | 0.80 |
| 2.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 20% |
| 80% | Both teams scored | 60% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 5 games each.
Liga 1 Indonesia table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | +3 | 10 | WDDWD |
| 8 | Persik Kediri | 6 | +3 | 10 | WLWDW |
| 9 | Arema FC | 7 | +2 | 9 | WLLDD |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | +1 | 9 | LDWDW |
| 11 | PSM Makassar | 6 | -3 | 8 | WWLDD |
| 12 | Java United | 7 | +0 | 7 −2 | DDWWL |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | -2 | 6 | LWLWL |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 7 | -7 | 5 | LLWLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: PSM Makassar won 0, Persebaya Surabaya 3, 3 draws; 1.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | Persebaya Surabaya | 1–0 | PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
| 6 Dec 2025 | PSM Makassar | 1–1 | Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| 7 Mar 2025 | PSM Makassar | 0–1 | Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| 23 Oct 2024 | Persebaya Surabaya | 1–1 | PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
| 28 Feb 2024 | PSM Makassar | 0–0 | Persebaya Surabaya | Liga 1 |
| 18 Aug 2023 | Persebaya Surabaya | 1–0 | PSM Makassar | Liga 1 |
Match context
- Rest days
- PSM Makassar 6Persebaya Surabaya 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: PSM Makassar 2 · Persebaya Surabaya 2
- Referee
- B. Y. Nurcahya
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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