Stoke City vs Bristol City prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Stoke to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 55% · ✓ 0 goals
The Verdict
All three analysts pushed Stoke's number upward, so we lifted the home win from 39% to 41%; the away price slips only slightly, keeping the draw near baseline.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Stoke City's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsStoke City's strong home form and high morale should see them secure the win.
Stoke City is 6th with 19 points, while Bristol City is 15th with 14 points. Stoke has been unbeaten in their last three home league games against Bristol City.
Stoke: clearly underrated
More goalsMed✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureIn-form, unified Stoke host a blunt, unsettled Bristol City and look the stronger side.
Stoke have six wins in their last eight and sit 6th, three points off the automatic spots. Bristol City have won once in six league games, lost the last two 1-0, and their 12 goals in 11 games is fourth-lowest in the division.
Stoke: clearly underrated
More goalsMed✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may still price this on old reputations rather than Stoke's current level.
Bristol City won the last meeting 2-0 in May, yet that result came before Stoke's tactical switch and subsequent rise. Two creative threats could decide a tight game.
Stoke: clearly underrated
More goalsMed✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Sixth-placed Stoke, unbeaten in three home league games against Bristol City, host a side that has lost its last two matches 1-0. Bristol City have scored only 12 league goals, the fourth-lowest tally in the division. Stoke are within three points of the automatic promotion places.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Stoke City win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Bristol City win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Stoke City and 1.1 from Bristol City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 39% | 30% | 31% | 45% |
| Goals model | 51% | 26% | 24% | 53% |
| AI analysts | 51% | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| Our forecast | 41% | 29% | 30% | 45% |
Verdict: Our home win sits slightly above the market because Stoke's form and home record against a low-scoring opponent point to a modest edge, while Bristol City's selection doubts keep the away and draw numbers broadly unchanged.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Stoke City: last 6
WLWWWD · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Derby | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Middlesbrough | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Bolton | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Sheffield Utd | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Watford | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | at Cardiff | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LWWWD
Bristol City: last 6
LLDWLL · 3 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Sheffield Utd | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Blackburn | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Charlton | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Watford | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Lincoln | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Southampton | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 away: DLWWD
Season stats
| Stoke City | Bristol City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.64 | Goals scored per game | 1.09 |
| 1.45 | Goals conceded per game | 1.36 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.80 |
| 73% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 73% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 2.09 | Yellow cards per game | 1.27 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Stoke City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | +12 | 20 −4 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Stoke City won 3, Bristol City 2, 1 draw; 3.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | Bristol City | 2–0 | Stoke City | Championship |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Stoke City | 5–1 | Bristol City | Championship |
| 12 Feb 2025 | Bristol City | 2–0 | Stoke City | Championship |
| 22 Oct 2024 | Stoke City | 2–2 | Bristol City | Championship |
| 4 May 2024 | Stoke City | 4–0 | Bristol City | Championship |
| 30 Sep 2023 | Bristol City | 2–3 | Stoke City | Championship |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1V. Johansson
Defenders
- 16B. Wilmot
- 18B. Lawal
- 5L. Graham
Midfielders
- 2B. Johnson
- 27El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
- 8E. Galbraith
- 21L. Bombino
Forwards
- 7J. McGlynn
- 13J. Devenny
- 11L. Cissé
Substitutes (9)
- 10Bae Jun-Ho
- 9R. Boženík
- 23B. Gibson
- 24J. Griffiths
- 15G. Hirst
- 4B. Pearson
- 19T. Rigo
- 40M. Talovierov
- 22J. Tchamadeu
Goalkeeper
- 40B. Collins
Defenders
- 3C. Pring
- 19G. Tanner
- 15L. McNally
- 2L. Eissat
Midfielders
- 12J. Knight
- 8J. Williams
- 21Rio Cardines
- 23D. Ballard
- 27G. Yah
Forward
- 9L. Tolaj
Substitutes (9)
- 5R. Atkinson
- 11S. Bell
- 6B. De Keersmaecker
- 20S. Greenwood
- 7Y. Hirakawa
- 4A. Randell
- 1S. Tickle
- 10S. Twine
- 17J. Wallace
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. AmpahKnee
- OutE. BocatInjury
- OutA. CresswellKnee
Show 2 more
- OutS. GallagherInjury
- OutS. IngelssonMuscle
- OutE. AdebayoNot available
- OutR. DickieKnee
- OutN. EileIllness
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Stoke are 6th with 19 points from 11 games; Bristol City are 15th with 14 points.[2]
- Stoke have won six of their last eight league games, with the only defeat coming at home to Middlesbrough.[1][5]
- Stoke beat Derby 1-0 in their most recent league match.[1][2]
- Bristol City have won once in their last six league games, scoring three goals in that run, and lost their last two matches 1-0.[1][2][7]
- Bristol City have 12 goals in 11 league games, the fourth-lowest total in the division.[7]
- Ethan Galbraith has assisted in three of Stoke's last four league games and leads the team with six goal involvements.[1]
- Rio Cardines' six assists lead the Championship.[7]
- Stoke switched to a back three after a heavy defeat to Wolves in late August and have taken a strong run of results since.[5]
Sources
- bbc.co.uk – Pick of the stats: Stoke City v Bristol City (2026-10-22)
- bbc.co.uk – Stoke City v Bristol City: Championship stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-24)
- bristolpost.co.uk – Bristol City predicted team vs Stoke: Changes expected with Williams and Tolaj decisions to make - Bristol Live (2026-10-24)
- bbc.co.uk – In-form Stoke not looking back says Graham (2026-10-20)
- bbc.co.uk – Team has to chip in with more goals - Skubala (2026-10-22)
Off the pitch
- Jason Knight's contract situation has drawn fan frustration, with some calls for him to be left out.[3]
Match context
- Stadium
- bet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
- 30,089 seats · grass
- Travel for Bristol City
- 174 km
- Rest days
- Stoke City 7Bristol City 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Stoke City 2 · Bristol City 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 29 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- James Bell
- 3.2 yellow cards per game and 0.25 penalties per game over 4 games — below the Championship average (3.9 yellows).
- Coaches
- M. Robins
- Stoke City, since Jan 2025
- M. Skubala
- Bristol City, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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