Portsmouth vs Millwall prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Portsmouth 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 52% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', a small nudge from The Sceptic's 2-point shift toward Portsmouth on home form and the head-to-head, trimmed back by Millwall's set-piece record. The Dressing Room's view was not followed: its case for Portsmouth's momentum edged the away side too low, and we kept Millwall near the market line because their set-play threat balances the poor recent run.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Portsmouth's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength sides, level teams - Portsmouth's depth at home edges a tight contest.
Portsmouth rotated four players at Wolves and coped well, showing real squad depth.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressurePortsmouth's momentum and home lift edge a tight mid-table clash
Portsmouth are unbeaten in three (won two, drew at Wolves) and sit two points off the play-offs.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPortsmouth's home revival and last season's double over Millwall look slightly underpriced.
Portsmouth won both league meetings 3-1 last season and have won 2 of their last 3 at Fratton Park after one win in the previous 10 there. Millwall have 1 win in 6 league games and lead the Championship in set-piece xG (6.8).
Portsmouth: slightly underrated
Low✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Two evenly matched mid-table sides meet at Fratton Park, separated only by goals scored. Portsmouth arrive unbeaten in three and stronger at home, while Millwall have one win in six but lead the Championship in set-piece threat. Last season Portsmouth won both league meetings 3-1.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Portsmouth win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Millwall win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Portsmouth and 1.2 from Millwall. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 0–0 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 38% | 29% | 33% | 48% |
| Goals model | 44% | 26% | 30% | 56% |
| AI analysts | 43% | 27% | 30% | 53% |
| Our forecast | 38% | 29% | 33% | 47% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because both sides sit level on 15 points with no clear availability edge; Portsmouth's home revival and last season's double over Millwall are partly offset by Millwall's league-leading set-piece threat.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Portsmouth: last 6
DWWLDD · 7 scored, 6 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Wolves | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Norwich | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Sheffield Utd | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Southampton | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Blackburn | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Charlton | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDWLL
Millwall: last 6
DLWDDL · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Lincoln | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Swansea | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Preston | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs West Ham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sep | at Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Blackburn | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WDLLW
Season stats
| Portsmouth | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Goals scored per game | 1.64 |
| 1.27 | Goals conceded per game | 1.64 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.83 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 45% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 18% |
| 1.45 | Yellow cards per game | 1.91 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Portsmouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | QPR | 12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Portsmouth won 2, Millwall 4, 0 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Millwall | 1–3 | Portsmouth | Championship |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Portsmouth | 3–1 | Millwall | Championship |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Millwall | 2–1 | Portsmouth | Championship |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Portsmouth | 0–1 | Millwall | Championship |
| 13 Aug 2024 | Portsmouth | 0–1 | Millwall | League Cup |
| 10 Aug 2021 | Millwall | 2–1 | Portsmouth | League Cup |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1N. Schmid
Defenders
- 24T. Devlin
- 5R. Poole
- 55M. Dia
- 22Z. Swanson
Midfielders
- 7M. Pack
- 37I. Mohamed
- 11A. Kamara
- 10A. Segecic
- 25R. Kavuma McQueen
Forward
- 29M. Milovanović
Substitutes (9)
- 19R. Shein
- 38E. Adams
- 27O. Bailey
- 31D. Bielica
- 32E. Kenny
- 16J. Meghoma
- 15F. Umeh
- 17T. Shade
- 20T. Waddingham
Goalkeeper
- 15M. Crocombe
Defenders
- 4T. Crama
- 6C. Taylor
- 5J. Cooper
- 3Zak Norton Sturge
Midfielders
- 14Jenson Metcalfe
- 49D. Mazou-Sacko
- 10C. Neghli
- 25L. Cundle
- 22K. Lisbie
Forward
- 13L. Dykes
Substitutes (9)
- 45A. Doughty
- 11R. Esse
- 9M. Ivanović
- 16D. Kelly
- 18R. Leonard
- 2J. Osei-Tutu
- 17M. Sykes
- 12E. Baggott
- 41G. Evans
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutK. AndersonOverload
- OutB. ArthurBack
- OutC. BishopKnee
Show 6 more
- OutL. Brooke-SmithAnkle
- OutM. KosznovszkyKnee
- OutJ. MurphyGroin
- OutC. OgilvieKnee
- OutC. ShaughnessyInjury
- OutJ. SwiftKnee
- OutT. ArconteAnkle
- OutJ. CoburnMuscle
- OutC. De NorreMuscle
Show 4 more
- OutL. JensenMuscle
- OutM. LuongoKnee
- OutF. MarschallInjury
- OutM. ServaisNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Both teams are on 15 points from 11 games, with Millwall 12th ahead of Portsmouth 13th only on goals scored.[1][2][3]
- Portsmouth are unbeaten in three, winning two and drawing at Wolves since losing to Southampton.[1]
- Portsmouth have won two of their last three home league games, as many as in the previous ten at Fratton Park.[1]
- Portsmouth made four changes against Wolves and still took a point, pointing to improved squad depth.[5]
- Millwall have won just twice in nine games since their opening two wins and have only one win in their previous six league matches.[1]
- Millwall have scored six goals from set plays, with only West Ham managing more, and lead the Championship in xG from set pieces.[1]
- Portsmouth have scored 14 and conceded 8 league goals this season.[2]
- Millwall could record successive away league wins for the first time since March.[1]
Sources
- bbc.co.uk – Pick of the stats: Portsmouth v Millwall (2026-10-22)
- bbc.co.uk – Portsmouth v Millwall: Championship stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-24)
- expressfm.com – This Week's Opposition: Millwall - Express FM - Portsmouth (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – 'There is now a belief and confidence about Pompey' (2026-10-21)
- bbc.co.uk – Millwall boss Neil reacts to Lincoln draw (2026-10-17)
Off the pitch
- Alex Neil described his side's first-half display against Lincoln as among the poorest of his tenure, saying his team lost every header and duel.[7]
Match context
- Stadium
- Fratton Park, Portsmouth
- 20,821 seats · grass
- Travel for Millwall
- 103 km
- Rest days
- Portsmouth 3Millwall 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Portsmouth 4 · Millwall 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 21 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Tom Reeves
- 4.4 yellow cards per game and 0.20 penalties per game over 5 games — above the Championship average (3.9 yellows).
- Coaches
- John Mousinho
- Portsmouth, since Aug 2026
- A. Neil
- Millwall, since Dec 2024
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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