Cardiff City vs Birmingham City prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Birmingham to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64% · ✗ 1 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with Birmingham marginally favoured at 41% and no meaningful move away from the market. The Coach's three-point shift toward Birmingham was not followed, because Cardiff's home record this season and their head-to-head edge against Birmingham offset the availability gap enough to keep the away lean modest.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Birmingham City's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks Cardiff City are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsBirmingham's depth edges a depleted Cardiff side in Wales
Cardiff line up without suspended Osho plus Chambers and Lawlor, with Colwill doubtful; Ng and Salech return. Birmingham miss Paik, Lund (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and Leonard but name a strong XI with Stansfield and Vázquez up front.
Birmingham: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureBirmingham's promotion push and flying form face Cardiff's long unbeaten home run.
Birmingham arrive 4th and unbeaten in five league games (W4 D1), fresh from 3-0 and 4-0 wins. Cardiff sit 19th but are unbeaten in nine home league games and have lost just one of the last 11 meetings with Birmingham. Gabe Osho is suspended for the hosts.
Birmingham: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongCardiff have nine players doubtful or out, including suspended Osho.
Cardiff: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Fourth-placed Birmingham City, unbeaten in five league games, visit a Cardiff City side yet to lose at home this season. Birmingham have won three straight league matches without conceding, while Cardiff miss Osho, Chambers and Lawlor. Our numbers stay close to the market, with Birmingham slight favourites.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cardiff City win or draw
- 59%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Birmingham City win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 65%
- No
- 35%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Cardiff City and 1.7 from Birmingham City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 2–2 (7%), 0–1 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 35% | 24% | 41% | 64% |
| Goals model | 33% | 26% | 41% | 57% |
| AI analysts | 33% | 26% | 41% | 57% |
| Our forecast | 34% | 24% | 41% | 64% |
Verdict: Our final numbers stay close to the market because Birmingham's superior form and table position are broadly balanced by Cardiff's unbeaten home record this season and their strong recent head-to-head record against Birmingham.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cardiff City: last 6
DWLWLD · 12 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Watford | 5–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Blackburn | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Charlton | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Bolton | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Stoke City | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDDL
Birmingham City: last 6
WWWDWL · 13 scored, 5 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs QPR | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Preston | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at West Brom | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Derby | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Sep | at Norwich | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLWD
Season stats
| Cardiff City | Birmingham City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.64 | Goals scored per game | 1.82 |
| 1.55 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 2.40 | Scored per game at home | 2.33 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 64% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| 82% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 9% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 2.09 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Cardiff City | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | +4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | +12 | 20 −4 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham City | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff City | 12 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cardiff City won 4, Birmingham City 1, 1 draw; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr 2024 | Birmingham City | 0–1 | Cardiff City | Championship |
| 13 Dec 2023 | Cardiff City | 0–1 | Birmingham City | Championship |
| 29 Aug 2023 | Birmingham City | 1–3 | Cardiff City | League Cup |
| 14 Feb 2023 | Birmingham City | 0–2 | Cardiff City | Championship |
| 13 Aug 2022 | Cardiff City | 1–0 | Birmingham City | Championship |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Cardiff City | 1–1 | Birmingham City | Championship |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1N. Trott
Defenders
- 38P. Ng
- 2W. Fish
- 3J. Bagan
- 23C. Scanlon
Midfielders
- 18A. Robertson
- 8J. Moylan
- 11O. Tanner
- 27J. Colwill
- 45Cian Ashford
Forward
- 9Y. Salech
Substitutes (9)
- 39I. Davies
- 44R. Kpakio
- 52T. Perrett
- 33R. Tankiewicz
- 14D. Turnbull
- 30H. Tyrer
- 16C. Willock
- 50Charlie Holt
- 40N. Anyadike
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Beadle
Defenders
- 26B. Osayi-Samuel
- 5P. Neumann
- 4C. Klarer
- 20A. Cochrane
Midfielders
- 24T. Iwata
- 14J. Solis
- 7Carlos Vicente
- 28J. Stansfield
- 17L. Millar
Forward
- 32L. Vázquez
Substitutes (9)
- 23D. Fry
- 19T. Gardner-Hickman
- 10D. Gray
- 2E. Laird
- 16P. Roberts
- 33M. Ducksch
- 3L. Buchanan
- 18M. Bird
- 21R. Allsop
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.G. OshoSuspended
- OutC. ChambersKnee
- OutR. ColwillAnkle
Show 1 more
- OutD. LawlorHamstring
- OutM. LeonardAchilles Tendon
- OutPaik Seung-HoHealth problems
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Cardiff City sit 19th on 11 points from 11 games, while Birmingham City are fourth on 20 points.[2][3]
- Cardiff are unbeaten at home in the league this season, with two wins and three draws from five games.[2]
- Birmingham are unbeaten in five league matches, winning four, and have kept clean sheets in their last three wins.[3][6]
- Birmingham's recent wins include a 4-0 home victory over Preston and a 3-0 home win over QPR.[3]
- Cardiff beat Watford 5-1 in their last home game before drawing 2-2 at Middlesbrough.[1][3]
- Cardiff have lost only one of their past 11 league meetings with Birmingham City.[1]
- Birmingham have won three and lost one of their five away league games this season.[2]
Sources
- bbc.co.uk – Pick of the stats: Cardiff City v Birmingham City (2026-10-22)
- bbc.com – Cardiff City v Birmingham City: Championship stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-24)
- onefootball.com – Cardiff City v Birmingham: play-off push meets lower-half climb - OneFootball (2026-10-23)
- walesonline.co.uk – Nine players could miss Cardiff City v Birmingham City as absences mount - Wales Online (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Former Man United chief Murtough joins Birmingham (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – EFL preview: 'Sleepless nights' for under pressure bosses (2026-10-23)
Off the pitch
- Birmingham have appointed former Manchester United chief John Murtough as their new director of football.[5]
Match context
- Stadium
- Cardiff City Stadium, Caerdydd
- 33,280 seats · grass
- Travel for Birmingham City
- 141 km
- Rest days
- Cardiff City 7Birmingham City 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cardiff City 2 · Birmingham City 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 27 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Tim Robinson
- 4.7 yellow cards per game and 0.14 penalties per game over 7 games — above the Championship average (3.9 yellows).
- Coaches
- B. Barry-Murphy
- Cardiff City, since Jul 2025
- C. Davies
- Birmingham City, since Jun 2024
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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