Sheffield United vs Derby County prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Sheffield United to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers remain close to the bookmakers' as we did not shift the probabilities away from the market. The Coach's view that Derby's defensive crisis is a bigger factor than implied by the market was not followed.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Sheffield United's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsDerby's defence is patched up with four defenders and their captain out - home side holds the cards.
Derby are without Langas, Clarke, Forsyth, Cashin and captain Travis, with Zetterstrom only just back in training and a back-three switch under consideration. Sheffield United name a strong XI including Bamford, Phillips and Brereton Díaz. Derby's league-leading high press (99 turnovers) has produced no goals yet.
Sheffield United: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureIn-form United host a winless-in-seven, crisis-hit Derby side.
Sheffield United have won 2 of their last 3 league games and sit two points off the play-offs. Derby are 23rd with 6 points, one win in 12 league games and none in the previous seven, while John Eustace admits he is angry and frustrated but has the owner's support.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongDerby's patched-up defence tips a tight Bramall Lane fixture towards Sheffield United.
Sheffield United have won 5 of the last 7 league meetings, conceding just 2 goals across those wins. Derby have won 1 of their last 12 league games and failed to score in 4 different Championship matches this season. The market prices the home side at 54.8% while the statistical model sees 59%.
Sheffield United: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Sheffield United, currently in 11th place, faces a crisis-hit Derby County side in this Championship fixture. United has shown recent form, while Derby struggles with a severe defensive injury list and managerial pressure.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sheffield United win or draw
- 79%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Derby County win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Sheffield United and 1.0 from Derby County. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (6%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 55% | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| Goals model | 59% | 24% | 16% | 50% |
| AI analysts | 60% | 24% | 17% | 50% |
| Our forecast | 55% | 24% | 21% | 55% |
Verdict: Our final probabilities remain identical to the market's, suggesting that the perceived defensive crisis for Derby County is already factored into the current odds.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sheffield United: last 6
WLWLLL · 7 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Bristol City | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Portsmouth | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Lincoln | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Stoke City | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Fleetwood Town League Cup | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Wolves | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLLWD
Derby County: last 6
LLDDLL · 4 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Stoke City | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | at QPR | 1–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Wrexham | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Burnley | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Birmingham | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sep | vs West Brom | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LDLWL
Season stats
| Sheffield United | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.36 | Goals scored per game | 0.82 |
| 1.27 | Goals conceded per game | 1.82 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 0.67 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 64% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 55% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 1.91 | Yellow cards per game | 2.45 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Sheffield United | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 12 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| … | |||||
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | -10 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | -8 | 8 | LLDWD |
| 23 | Derby County | 12 | -11 | 7 | DLLDD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sheffield United won 4, Derby County 2, 0 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | Derby County | 1–2 | Sheffield United | Championship |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Sheffield United | 1–3 | Derby County | Championship |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Derby County | 0–1 | Sheffield United | Championship |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Sheffield United | 1–0 | Derby County | Championship |
| 29 Jul 2023 | Derby County | 1–3 | Sheffield United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 15 Jan 2022 | Derby County | 2–0 | Sheffield United | Championship |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1M. Cooper
Defenders
- 8H. Choudhury
- 5J. Tanganga
- 15L. Kitching
- 14H. Burrows
Midfielders
- 27K. Phillips
- 4O. Arblaster
- 19T. Chong
- 9T. Cannon
- 22B. Brereton
Forward
- 45P. Bamford
Substitutes (9)
- 10J. Ayew
- 33J. Baptiste
- 23T. Campbell
- 11R. Donovan
- 3S. McCallum
- 42Sydie Peck
- 7J. Rothwell
- 38F. Seriki
- 31Tommy Betts
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Widell Zetterström
Defenders
- 23J. Ward
- 24R. Nyambe
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
Midfielders
- 8B. Clark
- 4D. Ozoh
- 10R. Brewster
- 11S. Szmodics
- 19H. Meister
Forward
- 9C. Morris
Substitutes (9)
- 29O. Fraulo
- 16M. Fuseini
- 22M. Johnston
- 20A. Mowatt
- 14J. Robinson
- 15L. Salvesen
- 31J. Vickers
- 33C. Blackett-Taylor
- 13F. Bilbija
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutM. DohertyInjury
- OutJ. ShackletonHealth problems
- OutP. AgyemangAchilles Tendon
- OutE. CashinNot available
- OutM. ClarkeCalf
Show 5 more
- OutC. ForsythKnee
- OutS. LangasInjury
- OutD. MurkinHamstring
- OutC. TaylorInjury
- OutL. TravisAnkle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Sheffield United sits in 11th place in the Championship with 15 points from 11 matches.[2]
- Derby County is positioned 23rd in the table, having secured only 6 points from 11 games.[1]
- Sheffield United has won two of its last three league fixtures.[1]
- Derby County has only managed one win across its entire Championship season.[1]
- The head coach of Derby County, John Eustace, is under pressure following a poor start to the season.[5]
- Sheffield United has won five of the last seven league encounters against Derby County.[1]
Sources
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Bramall Lane, Sheffield
- 32,702 seats · grass
- Travel for Derby County
- 51 km
- Rest days
- Sheffield United 6Derby County 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sheffield United 3 · Derby County 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 17 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Steve Martin
- 5.2 yellow cards per game and 0.25 penalties per game over 4 games — above the Championship average (3.9 yellows).
- Coaches
- Chris Wilder
- Sheffield United, since Aug 2026
- J. Eustace
- Derby County, since Feb 2025
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
