Queens Park Rangers vs Swansea City prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Queens Park Rangers 36%)
Goals call3+ goals 50% · bookies 49% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
Our away probability rises three points above the bookmakers' because QPR's absences hit both creativity and attacking depth against a Swansea side with the league's best defence. The Sceptic's view was followed least, as its smaller five-point shift toward Swansea was outweighed by the availability and form arguments from the other two analysts.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Swansea City's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsQPR's absences meet a full-strength Swansea side with the league's best defence.
QPR are without Lamptey, Madsen, Burrell and Chair, with Dembele (a doubt) uncertain; Kone and Cirkin return to the XI. Swansea's division-best defence faces a depleted QPR creative core. Key duel: Eustaquio-Stamenic control vs QPR's Kamara-Varane screen.
Swansea: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureSwansea City's superior form and defensive stability give them the edge over an inconsistent QPR side.
Swansea City is top of the table with 23 points and the best defensive record in the division. QPR is ninth in the table and has had four draws in their last seven matches. Swansea is motivated following a narrow home defeat to West Ham.
Swansea: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSwansea City's defensive strength and consistent away form give them the edge in this match.
Swansea City is ranked 2nd with a goal difference of +8 and has secured 7 wins in their last 11 away games.
Swansea: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Second-placed Swansea City, with the league's best defensive record and strong away form, visit a QPR side missing several key players. QPR have drawn four of their last seven and lost their most recent match. Availability points toward the visitors.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Queens Park Rangers win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Swansea City win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Queens Park Rangers and 1.3 from Swansea City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 39% | 28% | 33% | 49% |
| Goals model | 33% | 32% | 35% | 36% |
| AI analysts | 30% | 30% | 40% | 41% |
| Our forecast | 36% | 27% | 36% | 50% |
Verdict: Our numbers move a few points from the market toward Swansea because QPR are without several regulars, including Chair, Madsen, Lamptey and Burrell, while Swansea's defensive record and away form are strong.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Queens Park Rangers: last 6
LWDDDD · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Birmingham | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs Derby | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | at West Ham | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Preston | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at West Brom | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sep | at Charlton | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDLWD
Swansea City: last 6
LWWWWL · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs West Ham | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Millwall | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Norwich | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Lincoln | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Burnley | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | at Southampton | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLWW
Season stats
| Queens Park Rangers | Swansea City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.36 | Goals scored per game | 1.45 |
| 1.09 | Goals conceded per game | 0.73 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.17 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game away | 1.80 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 45% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 1.91 | Yellow cards per game | 1.55 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Queens Park Rangers | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | +10 | 25 | WDWWD |
| 2 | Swansea City | 12 | +3 | 23 | LLWWW |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | +17 | 22 | LWWDD |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | +4 | 21 | WDWLL |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | +3 | 21 | DWWLL |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | +12 | 20 −4 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers | 12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Queens Park Rangers won 2, Swansea City 3, 1 draw; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 2026 | Queens Park Rangers | 1–2 | Swansea City | Championship |
| 22 Oct 2025 | Swansea City | 0–1 | Queens Park Rangers | Championship |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Queens Park Rangers | 1–2 | Swansea City | Championship |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Swansea City | 3–0 | Queens Park Rangers | Championship |
| 1 Apr 2024 | Swansea City | 0–1 | Queens Park Rangers | Championship |
| 19 Sep 2023 | Queens Park Rangers | 1–1 | Swansea City | Championship |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1P. Charles
Defenders
- 2K. Adamson
- 3J. Dunne
- 5R. Edwards
- 12B. Kemper
Midfielders
- 40J. Varane
- 17K. Poku
- 18G. Kamara
- 20H. Vale
- 11P. Smyth
Forward
- 22R. Kone
Substitutes (9)
- 23I. Alemayehu
- 19D. Cirkin
- 7K. Dembélé
- 26Rayan Jawad Kolli
- 4L. Morrison
- 25Justin Patrick Nnamdi Obikwu
- 14K. Saito
- 13C. Ward
- 33Leon Scarlett
Goalkeeper
- 22L. Vigouroux
Defenders
- 26F. Lissah
- 5B. Cabango
- 23S. Welsh
- 14J. Tymon
Midfielders
- 8E. Just
- 6M. Stamenić
- 46S. Eustáquio
Forwards
- 7M. Widell
- 33A. Idah
- 30Joseph Okopu
Substitutes (9)
- 17Gonçalo Franco
- 4J. Fulton
- 20Tiago Parente
- 3J. Seelt
- 31R. Stewart
- 9Z. Vipotnik
- 1A. Fisher
- 10Eom Ji-Sung
- 12J. Monga
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutR. BurrellNot available
- OutI. ChairMuscle
- OutT. LampteyNot available
Show 2 more
- OutN. MadsenInjury
- OutA. S. MbengueKnee
- OutC. BurgessAchilles Tendon
- OutJ. KeyMuscle
- OutRonaldHamstring
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- QPR sit ninth with 17 points from 11 games, while Swansea are second with 23 points from the same number of matches.[1][3]
- QPR lost 3-0 at Birmingham in their most recent game, and the 4-1 home win over Derby was their only victory since early September.[1]
- Four of QPR's past seven matches ended in draws, including away at West Ham and West Brom.[1]
- Swansea have won seven and lost two of their past 11 away games.[1]
- Swansea come into the match off a narrow home defeat to West Ham and are motivated to respond.[3]
- Swansea are described as having the best defensive record in the division.[3]
- QPR are regarded as one of the better attacking teams in the league and are well organised defensively.[1][3]
Sources
- bbc.com – Swansea City news: Vitor Matos explains away progress before QPR test - BBC (2026-10-24)
- bbc.co.uk – QPR trio ruled out for another month (2026-10-21)
- swanseacity.com – Vitor Matos | We need to keep believing in the way we play - Swansea City (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Stadium
- MATRADE Loftus Road, London
- 18,360 seats · grass
- Travel for Swansea City
- 264 km
- Rest days
- Queens Park Rangers 7Swansea City 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Queens Park Rangers 2 · Swansea City 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 19 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Sam Allison
- 3.3 yellow cards per game and 0.17 penalties per game over 6 games — below the Championship average (3.9 yellows).
- Coaches
- Julien Stéphan
- Queens Park Rangers, since Aug 2026
- Vítor Matos
- Swansea City, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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