Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Wrexham 39%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 55% · bookies 55% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers moved the draw probability up by one point and the away probability down by one point compared to the bookmakers. The Dressing Room's view was not followed, as the final model did not increase the draw probability as significantly as suggested by the analyst.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated; The Sceptic thinks Blackburn Rovers are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsBoth squads are depleted, but Blackburn's home core with Gudjohnsen edges a Wrexham side missing its creators.
Blackburn are without Morishita (a doubt), Ohashi, Forshaw and 2 more; Gudjohnsen (6 goals from 2.2 xG) and Afolayan lead the line. Wrexham travel without Windass, Broadhead and Cacace, with Cleworth and Thomason doubtful, though Moore (reported out, not confirmed by the club) (5 goals) starts in their back-three system.
Blackburn: slightly overrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
mood and pressureThis is a tight, high-stakes battle where Wrexham's tactical aggression could disrupt Blackburn's defensive structure.
Blackburn sits in 10th place with 15 points, while Wrexham is 14th with 14 points. Wrexham has been unbeaten in their last seven away league fixtures at Ewood Park. Both clubs are chasing play-off positions, adding significant pressure to the fixture.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongBlackburn's home advantage and recent form give them the edge in this mid-table clash.
Blackburn is 10th with 15 points, while Wrexham is 14th. Wrexham has conceded in each of their last six league matches. Blackburn has won their last two home league games.
Blackburn: slightly underrated
More goalsLow✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
This Championship encounter pits Blackburn Rovers against Wrexham in a tight mid-table battle. Both teams are heavily impacted by significant squad depletion due to injuries. Wrexham enters the match with a strong head-to-head record at Ewood Park, while Blackburn is under pressure from high-profile ownership.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Blackburn Rovers win or draw
- 61%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Wrexham win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Blackburn Rovers and 1.3 from Wrexham. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 31% | 29% | 40% | 45% |
| Goals model | 47% | 26% | 27% | 56% |
| AI analysts | 42% | 28% | 30% | 54% |
| Our forecast | 31% | 30% | 39% | 45% |
Verdict: Our final probabilities shifted the draw probability up and the away probability down compared to the market. This adjustment reflects the weight given to the strong head-to-head record of Wrexham at Ewood Park and the high likelihood of a tight, low-scoring affair.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Blackburn Rovers: last 6
LWWDWL · 11 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | at West Brom | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | at Bristol City | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Cardiff | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Portsmouth | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Millwall | 3–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Sheffield Utd | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWLLL
Wrexham: last 6
WLDWLD · 9 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Preston | 4–1 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs West Brom | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Southampton | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | at West Ham | 0–6 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Burnley | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDWD
Season stats
| Blackburn Rovers | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Goals scored per game | 1.36 |
| 1.45 | Goals conceded per game | 1.45 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 82% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| 82% | Both teams scored | 73% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 18% |
| 2.45 | Yellow cards per game | 1.27 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Blackburn Rovers | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | +8 | 20 | LWWWD |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | +8 | 20 | WLWDD |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | +2 | 20 | DWLWW |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 12 | +3 | 18 | WLWWD |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | +1 | 18 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Blackburn Rovers won 1, Wrexham 1, 1 draw; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | Blackburn Rovers | 0–2 | Wrexham | Championship |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Wrexham | 1–1 | Blackburn Rovers | Championship |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Blackburn Rovers | 4–1 | Wrexham | FA Cup |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 22B. Tóth
Defenders
- 2R. Alebiosu
- 17H. Carter
- 15S. McLoughlin
- 3H. Pickering
Midfielders
- 8Sam Morsy
- 24M. Baradji
- 11J. Fevrier
- 10T. Cantwell
- 21O. Afolayan
Forward
- 9A. Guðjohnsen
Substitutes (9)
- 6Tom Atcheson
- 27Gady Beyuku
- 14D. De Neve
- 30J. Garrett
- 7A. Kargbo
- 1A. Pears
- 16S. Wharton
- 39H. Pates
- 48I. Dunn
Goalkeeper
- 22A. Patterson
Defenders
- 6J. Worrall
- 5D. Hyam
- 2C. Doyle
Midfielders
- 12I. Kaboré
- 37M. James
- 8B. Whiteman
- 3J. Ekomié
- 28S. Smith
- 17C. O'Hare
Forward
- 19K. Moore
Substitutes (9)
- 47R. Longman
- 27L. O'Brien
- 20O. Rathbone
- 18B. Sheaf
- 26Z. Vyner
- 21D. Ward
- 30Daniel Edward Peter Imray
- 15G. Dobson
- 11B. Cadamarteri
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. ForshawHip
- OutM. LitherlandMuscle
- OutL. MillerAchilles Tendon
Show 3 more
- OutR. MorishitaInjury
- OutY. OhashiHamstring
- OutY. RibeiroHamstring
- OutN. BroadheadThigh
- OutL. CacaceCalf
- OutM. CleworthMuscle
Show 3 more
- OutS. RevanHamstring
- OutG. ThomasonThigh
- OutJ. WindassAnkle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Blackburn Rovers currently occupy 10th place in the table with 15 points from 11 games.[1]
- Wrexham sits in 14th place, having secured 14 points from 11 league matches.[1]
- Blackburn's league record at home includes three wins, zero draws, and two losses.[1]
- Blackburn's manager, Tony Mowbray, has noted the pressure and spotlight placed on the club by Wrexham's high-profile owners.[3]
- The statistical model suggests a higher probability of goals compared to the initial market assessment.[5]
Sources
- bbc.co.uk – Pick of the stats: Blackburn Rovers v Wrexham (2026-10-22)
- roundtable.io – Wrexham AFC Injury Update Ahead Of Blackburn Trip - roundtable.io (2026-10-23)
- lancashiretelegraph.co.uk – 'Spent a few quid' - Blackburn Rovers relishing Wrexham financial mismatch - Lancashire Telegraph (2026-10-23)
- onefootball.com – Blackburn Rovers v Wrexham: mid-table duel with the play-off picture in sight - OneFootball (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Rovers loss to West Brom far from a disaster (2026-10-20)
Off the pitch
- Blackburn's manager has highlighted the pressure resulting from Wrexham's celebrity ownership.[3]
Match context
- Stadium
- Ewood Park, Blackburn, Lancashire
- 31,367 seats · grass
- Travel for Wrexham
- 85 km
- Rest days
- Blackburn Rovers 7Wrexham 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Blackburn Rovers 2 · Wrexham 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 38 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Matthew Corlett
- 4.7 yellow cards per game and 0.33 penalties per game over 3 games — above the Championship average (3.9 yellows).
- Coaches
- Tony Mowbray
- Blackburn Rovers, since Aug 2026
- P. Parkinson
- Wrexham, since Jul 2021
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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