Lincoln City vs Burnley prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Burnley 38%)
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
Our final probabilities stay close to the bookmakers' numbers, with only a marginal shift toward goals given the high-scoring league environment. The Sceptic's proposed small nudge on over 2.5 was not followed, as the difference of a few points was not large enough to justify deviating from the market.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsTwo depleted squads, but Burnley's remaining XI has more quality than Lincoln's patched-up side.
Burnley are without Vardy and Bruun Larsen, with Cullen doubtful after ten months out. Lincoln miss Hamer through suspension plus Melia and Wheatley injured. Burnley's XI still fields Walker, Igor Julio and Broja, while Lincoln's lineup is heavily reshuffled.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureTwo out-of-form sides in turmoil - a tense, level contest leans no clear way.
Lincoln are winless in four and one of three sides without a home league win (D2 L3). Burnley sit 22nd in the relegation zone, with fan unrest over ownership and the manager acknowledging the pressure. Both desperately need a result.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket prices this tightly; only a small lean toward goals stands out.
Model and market agree almost exactly on the 1X2 (35/27/38). The one gap is over 2.5: model 55% vs ~51% implied, in a league scoring 2.9 goals per game.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Two struggling sides meet: Lincoln are 18th without a home league win, Burnley sit 22nd amid fan unrest. Both squads are heavily depleted. Our numbers stay close to the market, with a slight lean toward goals.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lincoln City win or draw
- 62%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Burnley win or draw
- 65%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Lincoln City and 1.4 from Burnley. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 35% | 27% | 38% | 51% |
| Goals model | 35% | 27% | 38% | 55% |
| AI analysts | 35% | 27% | 38% | 54% |
| Our forecast | 35% | 27% | 38% | 51% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because both sides are severely depleted and out of form, with Lincoln's home absences offsetting venue advantage and Burnley's off-field unrest offsetting their squad quality. The tight balance of negatives on both sides leaves the bookmakers' pricing largely intact.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lincoln City: last 6
DLLLWW · 5 scored, 13 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Oct | vs West Ham | 0–6 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Sheffield Utd | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Swansea | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Bristol City | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Preston | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLDDL
Burnley: last 6
LDWDLD · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Wolves | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Charlton | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Watford | 4–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Derby | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Swansea | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | at Wrexham | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: WLDLD
Season stats
| Lincoln City | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.82 | Goals scored per game | 1.45 |
| 1.73 | Goals conceded per game | 1.91 |
| 0.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.60 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| 45% | Both teams scored | 91% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 9% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 2.45 | Yellow cards per game | 2.09 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Lincoln City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | +1 | 16 | DWLWL |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 | LDLWD |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | -3 | 15 | DLLDW |
| 15 | Lincoln City | 12 | -7 | 15 | WDLLL |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | +2 | 14 | WDWLW |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | -3 | 14 | LWLDW |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LDWLW |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | -7 | 14 | LLDDL |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | -2 | 12 | WLLLL |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | -10 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | -8 | 8 | LLDWD |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | -11 | 7 | DLLDD |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | -15 | 5 | DLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Lincoln City won 1, Burnley 0, 0 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb 2017 | Burnley | 0–1 | Lincoln City | FA Cup |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1G. Wickens
Defenders
- 4A. Coubiș
- 15S. Bradley
- 25D. Elerewe
- 3A. Reach
Midfielders
- 14C. McGrandles
- 26Y. Konak
- 7R. Hackett
- 18B. House
- 16D. Jefferies
Forward
- 11M. Ladefoged
Substitutes (9)
- 8T. Bayliss
- 20C. Elder
- 46J. Gauci
- 27C. Ogbene
- 19I. Olaofe
- 33D. Oyegoke
- 17R. Street
- 6R. Towler
- 24I. Varfolomeev
Goalkeeper
- 37G. Coudert
Defenders
- 2K. Walker
- 18H. Ekdal
- 44Igor
- 23Lucas Pires
Midfielders
- 3Max Alleyne
- 5R. Hatate
- 19L. Ramazani
- 29J. Laurent
- 12D. Satpaev
Forward
- 27A. Broja
Substitutes (9)
- 8U. Raghouber
- 14C. Roberts
- 22O. Sonne
- 1M. Weiß
- 10M. Edwards
- 30L. Castell
- 17A. Hountondji
- 41G. Brierley
- 48E. Agyei
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.F. DraperSuspended
- Susp.T. HamerSuspended
- OutT. DarikwaKnee
Show 2 more
- OutM. MeliaThigh
- OutE. WheatleyNot available
- OutA. AhmedhodzicKnock
- OutZ. AmdouniAnkle
- OutJ. BanelMuscle
Show 11 more
- OutA. BarnesMuscle
- OutJ. BeyerHamstring
- OutJ. Bruun LarsenInjury
- OutJ. CullenKnee
- OutB. HumphreysMuscle
- OutH. MejbriHamstring
- OutM. ObafemiNot available
- OutA. RamseyHamstring
- OutS. SamboNot available
- OutM. Tresor NdayishimiyeNot available
- OutJ. VardyInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Lincoln City sit 18th with 12 points from 11 games and are one of three Championship sides still without a home league win this season.[1][2]
- Lincoln are winless in four league games, drawing at Millwall last time out after heavy defeats to West Ham and Sheffield United.[2]
- Burnley sit 22nd in the relegation zone with 8 points from 11 games.[2][5]
- Burnley's recent league results include a 4-0 away win at Watford but a home loss to Wolves and a draw with Charlton.[1][5]
- Burnley have won none of their six home league games this season, though they have one away win.[2]
- Lincoln have lost three of five home league games and drawn the other two.[2]
- Burnley have a lengthy injury list, with Bruun Larsen out up to three months with a stress fracture and Vardy sidelined by a back injury.[9]
- Lincoln are missing Hamer through suspension, while Melia and Wheatley are injured, leaving their final lineup uncertain.[5]
Sources
- bbc.co.uk – Pick of the stats: Lincoln City v Burnley (2026-10-22)
- bbc.com – Lincoln City v Burnley: Championship stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-24)
- thelinc.co.uk – History behind it: Lincoln City vs Burnley match preview (EFL Championship) - The Linc (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Failure on the field, unrest in stands - Burnley's horror 12 months (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Burnley's Bruun Larsen out for up to three months (2026-10-22)
Off the pitch
- Supporters have shown growing unrest over the club's ownership, and the manager has acknowledged the anger and pressure.[8]
Match context
- Stadium
- LNER Stadium, Lincoln, Lincolnshire
- 10,780 seats · grass
- Travel for Burnley
- 128 km
- Rest days
- Lincoln City 7Burnley 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lincoln City 2 · Burnley 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 27 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Thomas Parsons
- 4.3 yellow cards per game and 0.33 penalties per game over 3 games — above the Championship average (3.9 yellows).
- Coaches
- Chris Cohen
- Lincoln City, since Oct 2026
- N. Hayen
- Burnley, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- Championship average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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