Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
TSG Hoffenheim to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 69% · bookies 69%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: a tight match where Hoffenheim's recent surge earns favouritism, but Werder's unbeaten run and home scoring rate keep them firmly in it. On goals there is little debate, with both conceding two a game and over 2.5 priced at 69%, so a scoring afternoon in Bremen is the shared expectation.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky, attacking sides point to goals in Bremen.
Both sides concede two per game this season and neither keeps many clean sheets. Werder score 2.67 per game at home, Hoffenheim 2.25 away, and both rarely fail to score. Hoffenheim's league games are over 2.5 goals 100% of the time.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureWerder's fresher legs against Hoffenheim's rolling momentum.
Werder sit 6th on 12 points, three clear of Hoffenheim on 9, but Hoffenheim arrive on a three-match winning run in all competitions with three games in 14 days. Werder have had 7 days' rest and are unbeaten in six, drawing three of them.
Werder Bremen: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHoffenheim's away record makes 43% look generous.
The prices make Hoffenheim favourites despite a worse league record and 1.67 goals per game away. Their away form reads W L L L W, yet they arrive off 3-0 wins over Leverkusen and Lyon. Werder's 3 draws in 6 show hard-to-beat traits; the 24% draw price may be a shade low.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
TSG Hoffenheim are slight favourites at 43%, with Werder Bremen on 33% and the draw on 24%. Werder Bremen are 6th and TSG Hoffenheim 10th in the Bundesliga. In their last five league games, Werder Bremen won two and TSG Hoffenheim three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Werder Bremen win or draw
- 57%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- TSG Hoffenheim win or draw
- 67%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 68%
- 4+ goals
- 47%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 68%
- No
- 32%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Werder Bremen and 1.9 from TSG Hoffenheim. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 0–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% | 24% | 43% | Stats preview | #1831 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Werder Bremen: last 6
WDDWDW · 14 scored, 10 conceded
| 24 Oct | at FSV Mainz 05 | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs SC Paderborn 07 | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs FC Augsburg | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | at 1. FC Köln | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs RB Leipzig | 3–1 | W |
Last 3 at home: DWW
TSG Hoffenheim: last 6
WWWLLL · 13 scored, 10 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Lyon UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Beşiktaş UEFA Europa League | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Hamburger SV | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at SC Paderborn 07 | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLLW
Season stats
| Werder Bremen | TSG Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.14 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.25 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 1.67 |
| 86% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 100% |
| 100% | Both teams scored | 86% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | +7 | 13 | LLWDW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | TSG Hoffenheim | 7 | +0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
Match context
- Travel for TSG Hoffenheim
- 425 km
- Rest days
- Werder Bremen 7TSG Hoffenheim 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Werder Bremen 1 · TSG Hoffenheim 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- D. Thioune
- Werder Bremen, since Oct 2026
- C. Ilzer
- TSG Hoffenheim, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.56 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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