Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win: 49%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
Gladbach's defensive record and the 3.56 goals-per-match environment support over 2.5, but Paderborn's low away scoring tempers it. A competitive, goal-heavy home win is the consensus picture.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Borussia Mönchengladbach's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersGladbach's leaky defence and Paderborn's blunt attack point to goals, mostly at one end.
Paderborn score just 0.86 per game and fail to score in 57%. The hosts' 2.33 at home tilts this towards a high-scoring home win.
Borussia Mönchengladbach: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureBottom-club pressure meets a mid-table side in steadier form; the hosts must win it.
Paderborn are 13th on 8 points and unbeaten in two of their last three away. Both had 7 days' rest, so freshness is even and the pressure sits squarely on the hosts.
Borussia Mönchengladbach: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks fair, but the goals line may be a touch generous.
Gladbach's 3-2 win at Stuttgart shows fight, and they scored 7 across their last three home games, so 49% for the hosts holds up. But Paderborn's matches went over 2.5 only 43% of the time and they scored 0.67 per game away, so 64% for over 2.5 looks slightly high.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Borussia Mönchengladbach are favourites at 49%, with SC Paderborn 07 on 27% and the draw on 24%. Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th and SC Paderborn 07 13th in the Bundesliga. In their last five league games, Borussia Mönchengladbach won one and SC Paderborn 07 two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- SC Paderborn 07 win or draw
- 51%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 41%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.4 from SC Paderborn 07. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49% | 24% | 27% | Stats preview | #1853 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Borussia Mönchengladbach: last 6
WLLLLL · 11 scored, 19 conceded
| 23 Oct | at VfB Stuttgart | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs 1899 Hoffenheim | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at 1. FC Köln | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs FSV Mainz 05 | 3–4 | L |
| 12 Sep | at SC Freiburg | 0–5 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs SV Elversberg | 3–4 | L |
Last 3 at home: LLL
SC Paderborn 07: last 6
WDLWLL · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Hamburger SV | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Werder Bremen | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs VfB Stuttgart | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs 1899 Hoffenheim | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Borussia Dortmund | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs SC Freiburg | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 away: DLDW
Season stats
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | SC Paderborn 07 | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57 | Goals scored per game | 0.86 |
| 3.14 | Goals conceded per game | 1.29 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 100% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 71% | Both teams scored | 29% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 57% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | +0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | -12 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | -11 | 3 | WLLLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 7SC Paderborn 07 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 · SC Paderborn 07 1
- Coaches
- A. Blessin
- Borussia Mönchengladbach, since Oct 2026
- R. Kettemann
- SC Paderborn 07, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.56 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
