SV Elversberg vs Mainz prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Mainz to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean Mainz, with the sceptic noting their perfect away record may even make 45% light. The coach and sceptic agree the 65% over 2.5 line fits the data, and the dressing room sees two evenly placed sides with identical records, keeping a draw live.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences and strong scoring rates point to goals on Friday night.
Mainz score 3.33 per game away, Elversberg 2.67 at home, and both-teams-scored rates are 57% each. The league averages 3.56 goals per match.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureEvenly matched mid-table sides with identical records make this tight.
Both teams have 10 points from 7 games with W3 D1 L3, sitting 7th and 8th. Mainz arrive off a 2-3 home loss to Werder Bremen, Elversberg off a 0-4 defeat at RB Leipzig.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMainz's away form justifies favouritism, but 45% may be slightly generous.
Elversberg's home form is W L W with 8 scored and 7 conceded, and they lost 3 of their last 6. The 65% over 2.5 line looks fair given both teams' 71% rates.
SV Elversberg: slightly overrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Mainz are favourites at 45%, with SV Elversberg on 30% and the draw on 25%. SV Elversberg are 8th and Mainz 7th in the Bundesliga. In their last five league games, SV Elversberg won one and Mainz two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- SV Elversberg win or draw
- 55%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Mainz win or draw
- 70%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 65%
- No
- 35%
We expect about 1.5 goals from SV Elversberg and 1.9 from Mainz. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30% | 25% | 45% | Stats preview | #1854 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
SV Elversberg: last 6
LWLDLW · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | at RB Leipzig | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs FC Augsburg | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Union Berlin | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | at FC Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Bayern München | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4–3 | W |
Last 3 at home: WLW
Mainz: last 6
LWLWLW · 16 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Werder Bremen | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at FC Schalke 04 | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Hamburger SV | 5–0 | W |
Last 4 away: WWWW
Season stats
| SV Elversberg | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Goals scored per game | 2.29 |
| 2.14 | Goals conceded per game | 1.86 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 3.33 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 71% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 43% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | Mainz | 7 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | +0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
Match context
- Travel for Mainz
- 110 km
- Rest days
- SV Elversberg 6Mainz 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: SV Elversberg 2 · Mainz 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 8°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- V. Wagner
- SV Elversberg, since Oct 2026
- U. Fischer
- Mainz, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.56 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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