1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Cologne prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (1. Union Berlin 38%)
Goals call3+ goals 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
1. FC Union Berlin are slight favourites at 38%, with FC Cologne on 35% and the draw on 27%. 1. FC Union Berlin are 17th and FC Cologne 12th in the Bundesliga. In their last five league games, 1. FC Union Berlin won one and FC Cologne one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- 1. FC Union Berlin win or draw
- 65%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- FC Cologne win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 1.5 goals from 1. FC Union Berlin and 1.4 from FC Cologne. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 23% | 29% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2002 | |
| 2 | 38% | 27% | 35% | Prices moved | #2225 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
1. FC Union Berlin: last 6
DDWLLL · 3 scored, 15 conceded
| 24 Oct | at FC Augsburg | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs SV Elversberg | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | at Bayern München | 0–7 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs FC Schalke 04 | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Bayer Leverkusen | 0–4 | L |
Last 4 at home: DWLD
FC Cologne: last 6
DLWLDL · 5 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs FC Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Oct | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Hamburger SV | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Werder Bremen | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | at VfB Stuttgart | 1–4 | L |
Last 4 away: LLLW
Season stats
| 1. FC Union Berlin | FC Cologne | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.86 | Goals scored per game | 1.14 |
| 2.57 | Goals conceded per game | 1.57 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 43% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | +0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | FC Cologne | 7 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
| 17 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 7 | -12 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | -11 | 3 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: 1. FC Union Berlin won 3, FC Cologne 1, 2 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 2–2 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2025 | FC Cologne | 0–1 | 1. FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 11 May 2024 | FC Cologne | 3–2 | 1. FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2023 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 2–0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 4 Mar 2023 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 0–0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 11 Sep 2022 | FC Cologne | 0–1 | 1. FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
Match context
- Travel for FC Cologne
- 478 km
- Rest days
- 1. FC Union Berlin 8FC Cologne 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: 1. FC Union Berlin 1 · FC Cologne 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- M. Lustrinelli
- 1. FC Union Berlin, since Oct 2026
- René Wagner
- FC Cologne, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.56 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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