Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Bayer Leverkusen to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 75% · bookies 75%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
A home win with goals at both ends is the consensus picture.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Bayer Leverkusen's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences and Leverkusen's home scoring point to goals.
Leverkusen score 2.67 per home game and 2.29 overall, but keep clean sheets only 29% of the time. Stuttgart concede 1.86 per game and score just 1.00 away.
Bayer Leverkusen: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFourth versus fifteenth, and Leverkusen's home run should tell.
Leverkusen sit 4th on 13 points from 7 games and have won all four at home, scoring 10 and conceding 1. Stuttgart are 15th with 6 points and five defeats in seven. Both had a full week's rest, Leverkusen playing three games in 14 days to Stuttgart's two.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome win price looks fair, but the goals line may be a touch high.
54% home is defensible, though Leverkusen just lost 0-3 at Hoffenheim and concede 1.71 per game. Stuttgart's away form reads L W W L L with 8 conceded in 5, and only 57% of their matches go over 2.5, so 75% for goals looks slightly generous.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are favourites at 54%, with VfB Stuttgart on 25% and the draw on 21%. Bayer Leverkusen are 4th and VfB Stuttgart 15th in the Bundesliga. In their last five league games, Bayer Leverkusen won three and VfB Stuttgart one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Bayer Leverkusen win or draw
- 75%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- VfB Stuttgart win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 90%
- 3+ goals
- 74%
- 4+ goals
- 54%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 71%
- No
- 29%
We expect about 2.3 goals from Bayer Leverkusen and 1.6 from VfB Stuttgart. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 3–1 (7%), 1–2 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% | 21% | 25% | Stats preview | #2076 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Bayer Leverkusen: last 6
LWWWWW · 14 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | at 1899 Hoffenheim | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Oct | at OFI UEFA Europa League | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs SC Freiburg | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at FSV Mainz 05 | 4–3 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs RB Leipzig | 2–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WWWW
VfB Stuttgart: last 6
LDLWWL · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 23 Oct | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Oct | vs Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Hamburger SV | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Oct | at Slovan Bratislava UEFA Champions League | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at SC Paderborn 07 | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LWWLL
Season stats
| Bayer Leverkusen | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.29 | Goals scored per game | 1.43 |
| 1.71 | Goals conceded per game | 1.86 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 86% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 29% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +8 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | +7 | 13 | LLWDW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| … | |||||
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | -12 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | -11 | 3 | WLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for VfB Stuttgart
- 295 km
- Rest days
- Bayer Leverkusen 6VfB Stuttgart 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Bayer Leverkusen 3 · VfB Stuttgart 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 2 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Carles Martínez
- Bayer Leverkusen, since Oct 2026
- S. Hoeneb
- VfB Stuttgart, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.56 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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