FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Freiburg to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
On goals there is strong agreement — both teams' scoring and conceding rates support the 65% over 2.5 line, maybe a touch higher.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky, scoring teams point to another high-goal match in Augsburg.
Both sides score in every relevant split: Augsburg have failed to score 0% and score 2.00 per game at home, Freiburg 3.00 per game away. Augsburg concede 1.86 per game with only 14% clean sheets, so an open game at both ends looks likely.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFreiburg's league position gives them an edge, but their packed schedule levels this up.
Freiburg sit 3rd with 13 points from 7, Augsburg 9th with 9, so the visitors carry the stronger position. But Freiburg have 3 games in 14 days and only 5 days' rest, while Augsburg have had 7 days to prepare. The hosts' home run of D D D W suggests they are hard to beat here.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away price looks slightly too strong after three straight Freiburg defeats.
Augsburg's last six read D L D L D W — draws against Bayern and Leverkusen show resilience. Freiburg's last six read L L L W W D with three straight defeats, so 44% for the away side looks generous given that run. Goals numbers look right: 86% over 2.5 for both teams backs the 65% line.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
SC Freiburg are slight favourites at 44%, with FC Augsburg on 31% and the draw on 25%. FC Augsburg are 9th and SC Freiburg 3rd in the Bundesliga. In their last five league games, FC Augsburg won none and SC Freiburg two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC Augsburg win or draw
- 56%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- SC Freiburg win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 65%
- No
- 35%
We expect about 1.5 goals from FC Augsburg and 1.8 from SC Freiburg. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 0–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% | 25% | 44% | Stats preview | #2077 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC Augsburg: last 6
DLDLDW · 14 scored, 13 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Union Berlin | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at SV Elversberg | 3–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Bayern München | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Werder Bremen | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 4–1 | W |
Last 4 at home: DDDW
SC Freiburg: last 6
LLLWWD · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Bayern München | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Oct | at Monaco UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Bayer Leverkusen | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs FK Jablonec UEFA Europa Conference League | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs FC Schalke 04 | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: LLDWW
Season stats
| FC Augsburg | SC Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.43 | Goals scored per game | 2.29 |
| 1.86 | Goals conceded per game | 1.29 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 3.00 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 86% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| 86% | Both teams scored | 71% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 7 | +19 | 17 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +8 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | +7 | 13 | LLWDW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 9 | FC Augsburg | 7 | +4 | 9 | DLDLD |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | +0 | 9 | WWLLW |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 7 | -10 | 9 | LWWWL |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 | DLWLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- FC Augsburg 7SC Freiburg 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC Augsburg 1 · SC Freiburg 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- M. Baum
- FC Augsburg, since Oct 2026
- J. Schuster
- SC Freiburg, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.56 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
