Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
RB Leipzig to win: 51%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 66% · bookies 66%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean towards Leipzig, close to the published 51%, with the sceptic trimming it slightly given five straight away defeats. The main disagreement is goals: despite the 66% over 2.5 line and 3.56 goals per match league-wide, Schalke's 0.00 home scoring rate and 29% both-teams-scored figures make the under case credible.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think a draw is underrated. The Dressing Room thinks Schalke 04 are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLeipzig's attack travels badly, but Schalke barely score at home
Leipzig average 2.86 goals per game yet only 0.67 away, while Schalke score 0.57 per game and 0.00 at home, failing to score in 71% of matches. Leipzig have kept 57% clean sheets.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureLeipzig's class shows, but their away slump keeps Schalke in it
Leipzig sit 5th on 12 points from 7 games; Schalke are 16th on 6 points, winless in their last three home games (L D D, one goal conceded). Three games in 14 days for Leipzig versus one for Schalke may matter.
Schalke 04: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe away price looks right, but the goals line may be too high
The 51% away number fits Leipzig's 4 wins in 7, yet their five straight away defeats with 4 scored and 19 conceded argue for trimming it. Schalke's matches go over 2.5 only 43% of the time and both teams score in just 29%, against a published 66% over line that looks several points too high.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
RB Leipzig are favourites at 51%, with Schalke 04 on 23% and the draw on 26%. Schalke 04 are 16th and RB Leipzig 5th in the Bundesliga. In their last five league games, Schalke 04 won one and RB Leipzig three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Schalke 04 win or draw
- 49%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- RB Leipzig win or draw
- 77%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 65%
- No
- 35%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Schalke 04 and 2.0 from RB Leipzig. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 0–2 (7%), 0–1 (7%), 1–3 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% | 26% | 51% | Stats preview | #2001 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Schalke 04: last 6
DLLDWD · 4 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at 1. FC Köln | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs FSV Mainz 05 | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at SC Freiburg | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs SV Elversberg | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Union Berlin | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Bayern München | 0–0 | D |
Last 3 at home: LDD
RB Leipzig: last 6
WLLWWL · 13 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs SV Elversberg | 4–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | at Real Madrid UEFA Champions League | 1–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Bayern München | 1–6 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs PSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 6–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLL
Season stats
| Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.57 | Goals scored per game | 2.86 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.57 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game at home | 4.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| 29% | Both teams scored | 29% |
| 43% | Clean sheets | 57% |
| 71% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +8 | 17 | WDDWW |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 7 | +7 | 13 | LLWDW |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +1 | 12 | WDDWD |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | +3 | 10 | LWLWL |
| 8 | SV Elversberg | 7 | -3 | 10 | LWLDL |
| … | |||||
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | -3 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | -7 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | -3 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | -3 | 6 | DLLDW |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | -12 | 6 | DDWLL |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | -11 | 3 | WLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for RB Leipzig
- 366 km
- Rest days
- Schalke 04 7RB Leipzig 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Schalke 04 1 · RB Leipzig 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- M. Muslić
- Schalke 04, since Oct 2026
- M. Demichelis
- RB Leipzig, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Bundesliga average: 3.56 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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