Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Union St. Gilloise to win: 75%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings converge on a strong Union St. Gilloise victory, supported by their dominant form and statistical superiority. Despite historical head-to-head balance, the overwhelming evidence points to a high-scoring home win for Union.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Union St. Gilloise's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersUnion St. Gilloise's high scoring rate and defensive solidity at home should dominate this fixture.
Union averages 2.75 goals scored per game and only concedes 0.50. They score 2.25 goals per game at home. Cercle averages 1.12 goals scored but concedes 2.00 per game.
Union St. Gilloise: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUnion's strong league position and superior rest advantage contrast sharply with Cercle's recent struggles.
Union is 4th with 20 points from 8 games, while Cercle is 17th with only 3 points. Union has 3 days rest compared to Cercle's 8 days.
Union St. Gilloise: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongWhile Union is heavily favoured, the historical head-to-head record suggests more parity than the current probabilities reflect.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Union won 2 and Cercle won 2, with 2 draws. The published 80% win probability for Union is high given this history.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Union St. Gilloise are clear favourites at 75%, with Cercle Brugge on 10% and the draw on 15%. Union St. Gilloise are 4th and Cercle Brugge 17th in the Belgian Pro League. In their last five league games, Union St. Gilloise won four and Cercle Brugge none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Union St. Gilloise win or draw
- 90%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- Cercle Brugge win or draw
- 26%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Union St. Gilloise and 0.9 from Cercle Brugge. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 3–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80% | 13% | 8% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1170 | |
| 2 | 74% | 15% | 10% | Prices moved | #1317 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Union St. Gilloise: last 6
WWDDWW · 14 scored, 2 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Hapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League | 4–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Nijlen Cup | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Real Sociedad UEFA Europa League | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs OH Leuven | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Antwerp | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Sep | at Plzen UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWDDW
Cercle Brugge: last 6
WLLDLL · 6 scored, 11 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Sporting Hasselt Cup | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Anderlecht | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Charleroi | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | at OH Leuven | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Gent | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Lommel United | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WLDLD
Season stats
| Union St. Gilloise | Cercle Brugge | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 3.25 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 62% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | +11 | 22 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | +15 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Charleroi | 9 | +6 | 21 | LWWWL |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | +18 | 20 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | +3 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 6 | Genk | 9 | +5 | 15 | WWLDD |
| 7 | KVC Westerlo | 9 | +3 | 14 | DWWWW |
| … | |||||
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 9 | -7 | 7 | WLLWL |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 8 | -8 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 16 | OH Leuven | 9 | -8 | 6 | DDWDL |
| 17 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | -7 | 3 | LLDLL |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 8 | -16 | 3 | LWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Union St. Gilloise won 2, Cercle Brugge 2, 2 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Dec 2025 | Cercle Brugge | 1–1 | Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Union St. Gilloise | 2–0 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
| 8 Dec 2024 | Cercle Brugge | 0–0 | Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| 27 Oct 2024 | Union St. Gilloise | 1–3 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
| 19 May 2024 | Cercle Brugge | 1–2 | Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| 7 Apr 2024 | Union St. Gilloise | 2–3 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Union St. Gilloise 3Cercle Brugge 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Union St. Gilloise 3 · Cercle Brugge 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 21 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- W. De Cremer
- Goals in this league
- Belgian Pro League average: 3.10 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
