Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Kortrijk 37%)
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published numbers: a tight match between the league's two lowest scorers, with Kortrijk's 3 points from 8 games offset by Mechelen's poor away form and shorter rest. The over 2.5 line at 52% looks fair given both teams concede over two per game, though Kortrijk's 75% failed-to-score rate keeps the total modest.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Kortrijk's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals despite two blunt attacks.
Kortrijk fail to score in 75% of matches, yet both teams scored rates and 62%/50% over-2.5 records suggest chances flow. Expected goals sit level at 1.4 each.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePressure is all on Kortrijk after seven defeats in eight.
Kortrijk sit 18th with 3 points from 8 games and just 2 goals scored; Mechelen are 14th on 6 points. Mechelen's 5-day turnaround after two games in 14 may temper their edge.
Kortrijk: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome price looks generous given Mechelen's away struggles.
Kortrijk's 3-1 head-to-head win in 2024 and home advantage justify nudging the home side above the published 37%.
Kortrijk: clearly underrated
Med Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Kortrijk are slight favourites at 37%, with KV Mechelen on 36% and the draw on 27%. Kortrijk are 18th and KV Mechelen 15th in the Belgian Pro League. In their last five league games, Kortrijk won one and KV Mechelen one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Kortrijk win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- KV Mechelen win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Kortrijk and 1.4 from KV Mechelen. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 27% | 36% | Stats preview | #603 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Kortrijk: last 6
LWLLLL · 2 scored, 12 conceded
| 10 Oct | at Genk | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs SK Beveren | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at RAAL La Louvière | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Zulte Waregem | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Sep | at Anderlecht | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Charleroi | 1–3 | L |
Last 4 at home: WLLL
KV Mechelen: last 6
WWDLLD · 11 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs AS Eupen Cup | 5–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs St. Truiden | 4–3 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Lommel United | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sep | vs Anderlecht | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs KVC Westerlo | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | at RAAL La Louvière | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 away: DDLL
Season stats
| Kortrijk | KV Mechelen | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 2.25 | Goals conceded per game | 2.12 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.75 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 12% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 75% | Failed to score | 62% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SK Beveren | 9 | -6 | 10 | DLLWW |
| 13 | St. Truiden | 8 | -1 | 8 | LLLWL |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 9 | -7 | 7 | WLLWL |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 8 | -8 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 16 | OH Leuven | 9 | -8 | 6 | DDWDL |
| 17 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | -7 | 3 | LLDLL |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 8 | -16 | 3 | LWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Kortrijk won 1, KV Mechelen 5, 0 draws; 3.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2024 | Kortrijk | 3–1 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 20 Oct 2024 | KV Mechelen | 3–0 | Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 24 Feb 2024 | KV Mechelen | 3–0 | Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 26 Nov 2023 | Kortrijk | 0–3 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League |
| 21 Jan 2023 | KV Mechelen | 3–2 | Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 11 Jan 2023 | Kortrijk | 0–1 | KV Mechelen | Cup |
Match context
- Rest days
- Kortrijk 25KV Mechelen 17
- Matches in the last 14 days: Kortrijk 0 · KV Mechelen 0
- Referee
- B. Van Driessche
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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