Antwerp vs Charleroi prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Charleroi to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 57% · bookies 57% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
The sceptic even suggests the published 54% might be slightly light given five straight away wins and five wins in six head-to-heads. On goals, everyone lands near the published 57% for over 2.5, backed by Antwerp's 2.50 conceded per game.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Antwerp's chances are better than the bookmakers say. None of them makes Antwerp favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersCharleroi's tight defence against Antwerp's leaky one points away.
Antwerp concede 2.50 per game and keep clean sheets just 12% of the time, while Charleroi let in 0.88 per game and have never failed to score.
Antwerp: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThird against 13th: the table gap should decide this.
Charleroi sit 3rd with 21 points from 8 games, W7 D0 L1, while Antwerp are 13th with 7 points and five league defeats. Antwerp's last six games include five losses, and even their home form is L L D W with 11 conceded in 4. Both had 6 days' rest, so the gap stands.
Antwerp: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongIf anything the away side may be underpriced here.
Their away record is W W W W W with 7 scored and 1 conceded. The 57% over line is fair given 2.5 goals per game in the H2H and both-teams-scored at 57%.
Antwerp: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Charleroi are favourites at 54%, with Antwerp on 23% and the draw on 23%. Antwerp are 13th and Charleroi 3rd in the Belgian Pro League. In their last five league games, Antwerp won none and Charleroi four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Antwerp win or draw
- 46%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Charleroi win or draw
- 77%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Antwerp and 1.8 from Charleroi. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 0–2 (9%), 2–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% | 23% | 54% | Stats preview | #712 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Antwerp: last 6
WLLLLL · 4 scored, 15 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Heist Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at KVC Westerlo | 1–5 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Union St. Gilloise | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Club Brugge KV | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Standard Liege | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs St. Truiden | 1–4 | L |
Last 4 at home: LLDW
Charleroi: last 6
WWWWLW · 11 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Albert Quévy-Mons Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Standard Liege | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Cercle Brugge | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Zulte Waregem | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Union St. Gilloise | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Kortrijk | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWWW
Season stats
| Antwerp | Charleroi | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 2.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.88 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game at home | 2.50 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | +11 | 22 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | +15 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Charleroi | 9 | +6 | 21 | LWWWL |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | +18 | 20 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | +3 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 6 | Genk | 9 | +5 | 15 | WWLDD |
| … | |||||
| 8 | Lommel United | 9 | +0 | 12 | DWDLL |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 9 | -1 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 10 | Zulte Waregem | 9 | -2 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 11 | Antwerp | 9 | -5 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 12 | SK Beveren | 9 | -6 | 10 | DLLWW |
| 13 | St. Truiden | 8 | -1 | 8 | LLLWL |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 9 | -7 | 7 | WLLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Antwerp won 0, Charleroi 5, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Antwerp | 0–1 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 10 Apr 2026 | Charleroi | 2–1 | Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Antwerp | 0–2 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Charleroi | 1–1 | Antwerp | Jupiler Pro League |
| 29 May 2025 | Antwerp | 1–2 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 8 Dec 2024 | Antwerp | 1–3 | Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Antwerp 6Charleroi 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Antwerp 2 · Charleroi 2
- Referee
- Wim Smet
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
