Club Brugge KV vs St. Truiden prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Club Brugge KV to win: 74%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 73% · bookies 73% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
All three lean towards a Club Brugge win, and the 70% published probability holds up against their unbeaten league run and St. Truiden's away record. The sceptic's note on 2.6 expected goals versus a tighter head-to-head history is the main pushback, but the totals still point over 2.5. Conviction is strongest on the home side, softer on the goals line.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think St. Truiden's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes St. Truiden favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo attacking sides point to goals, with Club Brugge's defence the clear difference
Club Brugge score 2.50 per game at home with clean sheets in 62% of matches, while St. Truiden concede 2.00 per game with clean sheets just 12%. St. Truiden failed to score in 38% of matches, but Club Brugge have scored in every league game this season.
St. Truiden: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureA heavy fixture load and short rest put the visitors at a real disadvantage
Club Brugge sit 2nd on 21 points from 8 games with no draws, while St. Truiden are 12th on 8 points. The visitors have played 4 games in 14 days with only 2 days' rest, versus Club Brugge's 3 games and 3 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look right, but the 2.6 home expectation may be a touch rich
The model's 2.6 home goals sits above the last three head-to-heads (2-0, 2-0, 2-2), and St. Truiden score 2.5 per game away, supporting the 60% both-teams-score.
St. Truiden: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Club Brugge KV are clear favourites at 74%, with St. Truiden on 11% and the draw on 15%. Club Brugge KV are 2nd and St. Truiden 13th in the Belgian Pro League. In their last five league games, Club Brugge KV won four and St. Truiden one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Club Brugge KV win or draw
- 89%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- St. Truiden win or draw
- 26%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 89%
- 3+ goals
- 73%
- 4+ goals
- 53%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 2.8 goals from Club Brugge KV and 1.0 from St. Truiden. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 3–0 (8%), 1–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% | 16% | 13% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1122 | |
| 2 | 74% | 15% | 11% | Prices moved | #1328 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Club Brugge KV: last 6
WWWWWW · 18 scored, 5 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Lens UEFA Champions League | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Lokeren-Temse Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | at Inter UEFA Champions League | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | at RAAL La Louvière | 4–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Genk | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Antwerp | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWL
St. Truiden: last 6
WWWLLL · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 22 Oct | at FC Midtjylland UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Lommel United Cup | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs FC Iberia 1999 UEFA Europa Conference League | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at KV Mechelen | 3–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs KVC Westerlo | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at SK Beveren | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLWL
Season stats
| Club Brugge KV | St. Truiden | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.38 | Goals scored per game | 1.88 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 2.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game away | 2.50 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 62% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 9 | +16 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Gent | 8 | +11 | 22 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Charleroi | 9 | +6 | 21 | LWWWL |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | +18 | 20 | DWWWW |
| … | |||||
| 10 | Zulte Waregem | 9 | -2 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 11 | Antwerp | 9 | -5 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 12 | SK Beveren | 9 | -6 | 10 | DLLWW |
| 13 | St. Truiden | 9 | -2 | 8 | LLLLW |
| 14 | RAAL La Louvière | 9 | -7 | 7 | WLLWL |
| 15 | KV Mechelen | 8 | -8 | 6 | WDLLD |
| 16 | OH Leuven | 9 | -8 | 6 | DDWDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Club Brugge KV won 4, St. Truiden 1, 1 draw; 3.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | Club Brugge KV | 2–0 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 11 Apr 2026 | St. Truiden | 1–2 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League |
| 6 Dec 2025 | St. Truiden | 3–2 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Club Brugge KV | 2–0 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
| 15 Feb 2025 | St. Truiden | 2–2 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Club Brugge KV | 7–0 | St. Truiden | Jupiler Pro League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Club Brugge KV 3St. Truiden 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Club Brugge KV 3 · St. Truiden 4
- Referee
- N. Verboomen
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
