Genk vs Standard Liege prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Genk to win: 56%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 61% · bookies 61% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
The analysts suggest Genk has the edge based on home performance and league position, but the historical head-to-head record and the high goal-scoring nature of the fixtures suggest a closely contested match.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Standard Liege's chances are better than the bookmakers say. None of them makes Standard Liege favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersGenk's high-octane home attack should prove too much for Standard Liege's inconsistent away defence.
Genk averages 2.75 goals scored at home and 1.50 conceded. Standard Liege averages 2.00 goals scored away but conceded 10 goals in their last 4 away fixtures.
Standard Liege: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe slight edge in league position and home form suggests Genk holds the psychological advantage in this clash.
Genk sits 7th with 12 points from 8 games, while Standard Liege is 9th with 11 points. Genk has had 7 days rest, compared to Standard Liege's 8 days.
Standard Liege: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published probabilities seem reasonable, but the high frequency of goals suggests a tight, high-scoring affair rather than a clear home dominance.
Head-to-head over the last 6 matches saw 2.3 goals per game. Standard Liege has failed to score in 12% of their matches, while Genk has failed to score in 25%.
Standard Liege: clearly underrated
More goalsMed Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Genk are favourites at 56%, with Standard Liege on 19% and the draw on 25%. Genk are 7th and Standard Liege 9th in the Belgian Pro League. In their last five league games, Genk won two and Standard Liege two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Genk win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Standard Liege win or draw
- 44%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 82%
- 3+ goals
- 61%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Genk and 1.1 from Standard Liege. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 3–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 21% | 24% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #984 | |
| 2 | 56% | 25% | 20% | Prices moved | #1327 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Genk: last 6
WWLDDW · 10 scored, 4 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Excelsior Virton Cup | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Kortrijk | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Club Brugge KV | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Gent | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Anderlecht | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Aug | vs SK Beveren | 4–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WDWW
Standard Liege: last 6
WLLLWW · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Dender Cup | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Charleroi | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | at Gent | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at KVC Westerlo | 2–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Antwerp | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | at OH Leuven | 2–1 | W |
Last 4 away: LLWD
Season stats
| Genk | Standard Liege | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.62 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.62 |
| 2.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Charleroi | 9 | +6 | 21 | LWWWL |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | +18 | 20 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | +3 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 6 | Genk | 9 | +5 | 15 | WWLDD |
| 7 | KVC Westerlo | 9 | +3 | 14 | DWWWW |
| 8 | Lommel United | 9 | +0 | 12 | DWDLL |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 9 | -1 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 10 | Zulte Waregem | 9 | -2 | 11 | LLLLW |
| 11 | Antwerp | 9 | -5 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 12 | SK Beveren | 9 | -6 | 10 | DLLWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Genk won 2, Standard Liege 2, 2 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Standard Liege | 0–0 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Genk | 1–1 | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Genk | 0–3 | Standard Liege | Jupiler Pro League |
| 10 Aug 2025 | Standard Liege | 2–1 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 14 Feb 2025 | Standard Liege | 1–2 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 4 Dec 2024 | Genk | 2–1 | Standard Liege | Cup |
Match context
- Rest days
- Genk 7Standard Liege 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Genk 1 · Standard Liege 1
- Referee
- J. Vergoote
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
