Gent vs Anderlecht prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Gent 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean Gent, with probabilities clustered near the published 54/26/20 and none drifting more than a few points from it. The sceptic's head-to-head worry keeps the home case honest but does not overturn a season in which Gent are unbeaten and concede only 0.50 per game.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Gent's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersGent's defensive numbers at home make them worthy favourites against Anderlecht's blunt away attack.
Gent concede just 0.50 per game this season with clean sheets in half their matches, while Anderlecht score only 0.75 per game away and fail to score in 38% of matches. Both teams score just 25% for Anderlecht, so a home win to nothing fits the profile better than an open game.
Gent: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh The Dressing Room
the table and pressureGent's unbeaten table position against a struggling away run makes this a pressure game they should handle.
Gent lead the table with 22 points from 8 games, unbeaten with a 15-4 goal record, while Anderlecht sit 5th on 16 points. Both teams have played 3 games in 14 days with just 2 days' rest, and Anderlecht's league form is the shakier of the two runs.
Gent: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished home lean is fine, but the head-to-head gap argues Anderlecht are stronger than 20%.
Anderlecht's 38% failed-to-score rate is the counterweight. I shade Gent down a few points and keep over 2.5 near the published 40%.
Gent: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Gent are slight favourites at 38%, with Anderlecht on 32% and the draw on 30%. Gent are 2nd and Anderlecht 5th in the Belgian Pro League. In their last five league games, Gent won four and Anderlecht four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Gent win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Anderlecht win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Gent and 1.2 from Anderlecht. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% | 26% | 20% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1163 | |
| 2 | 41% | 30% | 29% | Prices moved | #1313 | |
| 3 | 38% | 30% | 32% | Prices moved | #1456 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Gent: last 6
LDWWWD · 9 scored, 7 conceded
| 22 Oct | at SC Braga UEFA Europa Conference League | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Rochefort Cup | 3–3 | D |
| 15 Oct | vs Aarhus UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Zulte Waregem | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs Standard Liege | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Genk | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWWWD
Anderlecht: last 6
WLLWWL · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Jagiellonia UEFA Europa League | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Beerschot VA Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at Dinamo Zagreb UEFA Europa League | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Cercle Brugge | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Zulte Waregem | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Lyon UEFA Europa League | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLWW
Season stats
| Gent | Anderlecht | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.88 | Goals scored per game | 1.12 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 0.75 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 25% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 38% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 9 | +16 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Gent | 8 | +11 | 22 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Charleroi | 9 | +6 | 21 | LWWWL |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | +18 | 20 | DWWWW |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | +3 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 6 | Genk | 9 | +5 | 15 | WWLDD |
| 7 | KVC Westerlo | 9 | +3 | 14 | DWWWW |
| 8 | Lommel United | 9 | +0 | 12 | DWDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Gent won 1, Anderlecht 4, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Gent | 1–1 | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Anderlecht | 3–1 | Gent | Jupiler Pro League |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Gent | 4–2 | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League |
| 15 Jan 2026 | Anderlecht | 1–0 | Gent | Cup |
| 23 Sep 2025 | Anderlecht | 1–0 | Gent | Jupiler Pro League |
| 27 Apr 2025 | Gent | 0–1 | Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League |
Match context
- Rest days
- Gent 2Anderlecht 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Gent 3 · Anderlecht 3
- Referee
- E. Lambrechts
- Goals in this league
- Belgian Pro League average: 3.10 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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