Unión (Santa Fe) vs Estudiantes de La Plata prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Unión (Santa Fe) 35%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 58% · bookies 58% · ✗ 4 goals
The Verdict
All three readings converge on a tight, finely balanced match: the coach sees Unión's porous defence against Estudiantes' miserly but blunt away attack, the dressing room flags Unión's five-match slump against Estudiantes' heavy fixture load, and the sceptic finds the published prices hard to fault. The 42% over 2.5 line looks fair given low away scoring.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Estudiantes de La Plata's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersEstudiantes' away stinginess meets Unión's leaky defence: goals likely, but not a shootout.
Unión concede 1.45 per game with only 16% clean sheets, and both teams have scored in 61% of their matches. Estudiantes concede just 0.77 per game but score only 0.79 away, so their trips lean tight and low-scoring.
Estudiantes de La Plata: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUnión have taken just one point from their last five and sit on 38 points from 31 games. Estudiantes are on 45 from 30 but face a third match in 14 days after only 3 days' rest, with a 0-0 at Flamengo in between.
Estudiantes de La Plata: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongA genuine coin-flip on paper, and the numbers price it exactly that way.
The sides split 3-2-1 over six head-to-heads at 2.2 goals per game, and both are rated 1.2 expected goals here. With Estudiantes failing to score in 43% of matches and Unión at 29%, the 42% over line looks fair if slightly generous.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Unión (Santa Fe) are slight favourites at 35%, with Estudiantes de La Plata on 35% and the draw on 30%. Unión (Santa Fe) are 10th and Estudiantes de La Plata 6th in Liga Profesional. In their last five league games, Unión (Santa Fe) won none and Estudiantes de La Plata two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Unión (Santa Fe) win or draw
- 65%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- Estudiantes de La Plata win or draw
- 65%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 68%
- 3+ goals
- 42%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Unión (Santa Fe) and 1.2 from Estudiantes de La Plata. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 0–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 28% | 30% | Stats preview | #1525 | |
| 2 | 40% | 29% | 31% | Prices moved | #1551 | |
| 3 | 35% | 30% | 35% | Prices moved | #1559 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Unión (Santa Fe): last 6
DLLLLW · 6 scored, 12 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Deportivo Riestra | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Defensa Y Justicia | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Boca Juniors | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Independiente | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Talleres Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | vs Instituto Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLWWL
Estudiantes de La Plata: last 6
DLDDWL · 7 scored, 6 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Flamengo CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs San Lorenzo | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Oct | vs Flamengo CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Central Cordoba de Santiago | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Oct | vs Gimnasia M. | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Lanus | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: DDLWL
Season stats
| Unión (Santa Fe) | Estudiantes de La Plata | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.42 | Goals scored per game | 1.17 |
| 1.45 | Goals conceded per game | 0.77 |
| 1.57 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.29 | Scored per game away | 0.79 |
| 58% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 37% |
| 61% | Both teams scored | 27% |
| 16% | Clean sheets | 43% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 43% |
League matches only, 31 and 30 games.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Instituto Cordoba | 30 | +11 | 53 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Lanus | 31 | +8 | 48 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Defensa Y Justicia | 30 | +4 | 46 | WLWWD |
| 6 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 31 | +10 | 45 | LLDWL |
| 7 | Independiente | 31 | +0 | 43 | LDDLW |
| 8 | Unión (Santa Fe) | 32 | +1 | 41 | WDLLL |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 31 | -5 | 41 | DWWLL |
| 10 | Gimnasia M. | 30 | -7 | 39 | LLWLD |
| 11 | Newells Old Boys | 30 | -9 | 36 | DWLDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Unión (Santa Fe) won 2, Estudiantes de La Plata 3, 1 draw; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 2–1 | Unión (Santa Fe) | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 15 Jul 2025 | Unión (Santa Fe) | 1–0 | Estudiantes de La Plata | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 3–1 | Unión (Santa Fe) | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 21 Jul 2024 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 0–0 | Unión (Santa Fe) | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2 Feb 2024 | Unión (Santa Fe) | 0–1 | Estudiantes de La Plata | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 1–3 | Unión (Santa Fe) | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Match context
- Rest days
- Unión (Santa Fe) 6Estudiantes de La Plata 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Unión (Santa Fe) 1 · Estudiantes de La Plata 3
- Referee
- Pablo Dovalo
- Goals in this league
- Liga Profesional average: 2.16 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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