Gaziantep FK vs Erzurum BB prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Gaziantep FK 39%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 54% · bookies 54% · ✗ 4 goals
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a tight contest where defensive frailties and recent form are key factors. While Erzurum BB has the better league position, the high frequency of draws in the head-to-head record and Gaziantep's defensive struggles at home point towards a low-scoring, cagey affair.
What our AI analysts say
All three think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersGaziantep's poor home defense clashes with Erzurum's struggles to score on the road.
Gaziantep FK has scored 0.50 per game at home but conceded 6 in their last 4 home matches. Erzurum BB has scored 1.00 per game at home but only 0.25 per game away.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureErzurum BB holds a slight advantage in the league standings and has more rest.
Erzurum BB sits 3 places above Gaziantep FK in the table, with 11 points from 8 games. Gaziantep FK has 8 points from 8 games and is managing 2 games in 14 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may be underestimating the likelihood of a stalemate given the recent history.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 3 draws. Both teams have poor recent form, with Gaziantep's last 4 home games being L D L D.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Gaziantep FK are slight favourites at 39%, with Erzurum BB on 32% and the draw on 29%. Gaziantep FK are 14th and Erzurum BB 11th in the Süper Lig. In their last five league games, Gaziantep FK won one and Erzurum BB three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Gaziantep FK win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Erzurum BB win or draw
- 61%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 45%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 51%
- No
- 49%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Gaziantep FK and 1.2 from Erzurum BB. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Gaziantep FK: last 6
LLLDWL · 6 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Başakşehir | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Çorum FK | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Kocaelispor | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Sep | vs Fenerbahçe | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Sep | at Göztepe | 4–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Rizespor | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 at home: LDLD
Erzurum BB: last 6
WDWLWD · 5 scored, 4 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Eyüpspor | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Alanyaspor | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Samsunspor | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Beşiktaş | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | at Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 away: DLDL
Season stats
| Gaziantep FK | Erzurum BB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.62 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.38 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 0.25 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 12% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | +4 | 16 | WWLDW |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | +6 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | +2 | 15 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Erzurum BB | 9 | -4 | 14 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | +5 | 13 | WWLWW |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | -2 | 12 | LLDWD |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | +0 | 11 | WDWLL |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | -3 | 10 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | +1 | 9 | WWDDL |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | -3 | 8 | WLDDW |
| 15 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | -6 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | -13 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | -21 | 3 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Gaziantep FK won 0, Erzurum BB 2, 3 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2021 | Gaziantep FK | 2–3 | Erzurum BB | Süper Lig |
| 2 Jan 2021 | Erzurum BB | 1–1 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
| 19 May 2018 | Gaziantep FK | 0–0 | Erzurum BB | 1. Lig |
| 7 Apr 2018 | Erzurum BB | 2–1 | Gaziantep FK | 1. Lig |
| 26 Nov 2017 | Gaziantep FK | 2–2 | Erzurum BB | 1. Lig |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutF. BavukHamstring
- OutU. MelekeInjury
- OutN. SangareBack
No absences reported.
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Gaziantep FK 5Erzurum BB 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Gaziantep FK 2 · Erzurum BB 1
- Referee
- Melek Dakan
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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