Alanyaspor 9thLDWDW

1–2

Fri 23 OctUK time (GMT)

Full time

Kocaelispor 8thLLWLW

Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Alanyaspor to win: 48%, about 1 in 2

Alanyaspor48%Bookies 48

Draw30%Bookies 30

Kocaelispor22%Bookies 22

Goals call2 goals or fewer 60% · bookies 60% · ✗ 3 goals

The Verdict

The three analyses converge on a closely fought match, with the market probabilities holding up well against the available data. While the Sceptic suggests a slight edge for Alanyaspor based on home performance, the overall picture points to a balanced encounter where goals are likely, given the H2H history.

! Upset: we gave Kocaelispor 22% Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

What our AI analysts say

All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.

The Coach

styles in the numbers

The high goal rate in previous meetings suggests an open contest is likely.

Alanyaspor scored 1.00 goal per game in the season, while Kocaelispor scored 1.12 goals per game. Alanyaspor's home scoring rate is 1.00 goal per game.

✓ In line with bookmakers

The Dressing Room

the table and pressure

Both sides are in similar league positions, making this a tight contest.

Alanyaspor sits 9th with 12 points from 8 games (W3 D3 L2). Kocaelispor is 8th with 12 points from 8 games (W4 D0 L4).

✓ In line with bookmakers

The Sceptic

where the market may be wrong

The market may slightly undervalue the home side given their recent home form.

Alanyaspor's last 3 home games resulted in 3 goals scored and 2 conceded. Kocaelispor's last 4 away games saw them score 3 goals but concede 6. The season average for both teams scoring is 38%.

✓ In line with bookmakers

Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.

In short

Alanyaspor are favourites at 48%, with Kocaelispor on 22% and the draw on 30%. Alanyaspor are 9th and Kocaelispor 8th in the Süper Lig. In their last five league games, Alanyaspor won two and Kocaelispor two.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Alanyaspor win or draw: 78%
Either team wins (no draw): 70%
Kocaelispor win or draw: 52%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 66%
3+ goals: 40%
4+ goals: 19%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 44%
No: 56%

We expect about 1.4 goals from Alanyaspor and 0.9 from Kocaelispor. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	22 Oct 18:00	48%	30%	22%	Stats preview	#578

Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Alanyaspor: last 6

LDWDWL · 6 scored, 8 conceded

17 Oct	at Fenerbahçe	0–3	L
10 Oct	vs Erzurumspor FK	0–0	D
19 Sep	at Çorum FK	2–1	W
12 Sep	vs Göztepe	2–2	D
7 Sep	at Rizespor	1–0	W
30 Aug	at Eyüpspor	1–2	L

Last 3 at home: DDW

Kocaelispor: last 6

LLWLWW · 7 scored, 6 conceded

18 Oct	vs Göztepe	1–2	L
11 Oct	at Beşiktaş	1–2	L
19 Sep	vs Gaziantep FK	2–0	W
13 Sep	at Galatasaray	0–1	L
6 Sep	vs Samsunspor	1–0	W
29 Aug	at Konyaspor	2–1	W

Last 4 away: LLWL

Season stats

Alanyaspor		Kocaelispor
1.00	Goals scored per game	1.12
1.12	Goals conceded per game	1.00
1.00	Scored per game at home	1.50
1.00	Scored per game away	0.75
50%	Matches over 2.5 goals	38%
50%	Both teams scored	38%
38%	Clean sheets	38%
25%	Failed to score	25%

League matches only, 8 games each.

Süper Lig table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
4	Trabzonspor	8	+13	16	WWWLW
5	Kasımpaşa	9	+4	16	WWLDW
6	Beşiktaş	8	+6	15	LWLWW
7	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15	WLLWL
8	Erzurumspor FK	9	-4	14	WWDWL
9	Çorum FK	8	+5	13	WWLWW
10	Alanyaspor	9	-2	12	LLDWD
11	Başakşehir	8	+0	11	WDWLL
12	Rizespor	8	-3	10	LLDWL
13	Göztepe	8	+1	9	WWDDL