Besiktas vs Istanbul Basaksehir prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Besiktas to win: 71%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 69% · bookies 69%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three cards lean the same way: Besiktas strong at home against a side that has scored once in four away games, tempered by their short rest and injuries and Basaksehir's fresher legs.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Istanbul Basaksehir's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Istanbul Basaksehir favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBesiktas's home scoring rate should force an open game.
Besiktas score 3.00 a game at home and have won four of their last five there, while Basaksehir concede 1.50 per game and have lost three straight away, scoring once and conceding nine. Basaksehir's away record is one goal in four, so the hosts' 2.6 expected goals looks fair.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFresh Basaksehir legs face a busy, wounded Besiktas.
Besiktas sit 6th on 15 points from 8 games, three days after a Europa League draw with Crystal Palace and with three games in 14 days, plus three players out.
Istanbul Basaksehir: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look right on the hosts, but the goal line is stretched.
Head-to-head games average 2.2 goals and both sides sit at 62% over 2.5 with 50% both-teams-score rates, yet the line prices over 2.5 at 69%. The 2025 meeting here finished 2-1, but Basaksehir have kept 38% clean sheets and failed to score 25% of the time, so 69% over feels a touch high.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Besiktas are clear favourites at 71%, with Istanbul Basaksehir on 12% and the draw on 17%. Besiktas are 6th and Istanbul Basaksehir 11th in the Süper Lig. In their last five league games, Besiktas won three and Istanbul Basaksehir two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Besiktas win or draw
- 88%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 84%
- Istanbul Basaksehir win or draw
- 29%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 87%
- 3+ goals
- 69%
- 4+ goals
- 48%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Besiktas and 1.0 from Istanbul Basaksehir. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (9%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71% | 16% | 12% | Stats preview | #1467 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Besiktas: last 6
DLWWLW · 13 scored, 11 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs Crystal Palace UEFA Europa League | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Oct | at Trabzonspor | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at 1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Kocaelispor | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Amed | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Marseille UEFA Europa League | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWWW
Istanbul Basaksehir: last 6
WDWLLD · 9 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Gaziantep FK | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Konyaspor | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 4–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Amed | 0–5 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs Galatasaray | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Kasımpaşa | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 away: DLLL
Season stats
| Besiktas | Istanbul Basaksehir | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.25 | Goals conceded per game | 1.50 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.20 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 25% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | +16 | 16 | WWWDL |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | +13 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | +4 | 16 | WWLDW |
| 6 | Besiktas | 8 | +6 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | +2 | 15 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | -4 | 14 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | +5 | 13 | WWLWW |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | -2 | 12 | LLDWD |
| 11 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 8 | +0 | 11 | WDWLL |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | -3 | 10 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | +1 | 9 | WWDDL |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | -3 | 8 | WLDDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Besiktas won 3, Istanbul Basaksehir 1, 2 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 2–3 | Besiktas | Süper Lig |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Besiktas | 2–1 | Istanbul Basaksehir | Süper Lig |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Besiktas | 0–2 | Istanbul Basaksehir | Süper Lig |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 0–0 | Besiktas | Süper Lig |
| 4 Apr 2024 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 1–1 | Besiktas | Süper Lig |
| 12 Nov 2023 | Besiktas | 1–0 | Istanbul Basaksehir | Süper Lig |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutO. KokcuFoot
- OutM. RashicaMuscle
- DoubtF. MirettiInjury
- DoubtC. OperiNot available
- DoubtJ. OpokuNot available
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Istanbul Basaksehir
- 0 km
- Rest days
- Besiktas 3Istanbul Basaksehir 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Besiktas 3 · Istanbul Basaksehir 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 17°C · wind 15 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- U. Ozturk
- Coaches
- V. Italiano
- Besiktas, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Süper Lig average: 2.87 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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