Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Galatasaray to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The three readings suggest a high-scoring encounter, with Galatasaray holding a slight edge at home. The combination of strong attacking statistics and historical performance points towards a competitive match with goals.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersGalatasaray's high-scoring home attack meets Fenerbahçe's potent overall offense.
Galatasaray averages 2.25 goals at home. Fenerbahçe averages 2.75 goals per game. FB has conceded only 0.75 goals per game in this competition.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureGalatasaray holds a strong position in the table, while Fenerbahçe is chasing the top spots.
GS is 2nd with 19 points from 8 games. FB is 3rd with 16 points from 8 games. GS has 5 days rest, compared to FB's 6 days.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market appears balanced, reflecting Galatasaray's historical edge and home advantage.
In the last 6 meetings, Galatasaray won 3 times. The average goals per game in these fixtures is 2.3. GS's home form shows 10 goals scored in last 5 matches.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
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In short
Galatasaray are slight favourites at 44%, with Fenerbahçe on 31% and the draw on 25%. Galatasaray are 2nd and Fenerbahçe 3rd in the Süper Lig. In their last five league games, Galatasaray won four and Fenerbahçe three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Galatasaray win or draw
- 69%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Fenerbahçe win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 65%
- No
- 35%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Galatasaray and 1.5 from Fenerbahçe. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 25% | 31% | Stats preview | #1502 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Galatasaray: last 6
WWLWLW · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 21 Oct | at Lille UEFA Champions League | 4–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Barcelona UEFA Champions League | 1–4 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Kasımpaşa | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Trabzonspor | 0–4 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Kocaelispor | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWWWD
Fenerbahçe: last 6
DWLWWD · 16 scored, 8 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Slavia Praha UEFA Champions League | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Alanyaspor | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Aston Villa UEFA Champions League | 0–6 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Rizespor | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Eyüpspor | 8–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Gaziantep FK | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: LWDWW
Season stats
| Galatasaray | Fenerbahçe | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12 | Goals scored per game | 2.75 |
| 1.38 | Goals conceded per game | 0.75 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 4.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 62% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | +10 | 20 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | +6 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | +16 | 16 | WWWDL |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | +13 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | +4 | 16 | WWLDW |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | +6 | 15 | LWLWW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Galatasaray won 3, Fenerbahçe 1, 2 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Galatasaray | 3–0 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Galatasaray | 0–2 | Fenerbahçe | Super Cup |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| 2 Apr 2025 | Fenerbahçe | 1–2 | Galatasaray | Türkiye Kupası |
| 24 Feb 2025 | Galatasaray | 0–0 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Fenerbahçe | 1–3 | Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- DoubtR. LeaoInjury
- OutM. AsensioKnee
- OutJ. OosterwoldeAchilles Tendon
- DoubtN. AkeMuscle
Show 1 more
- DoubtM. MuldurKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Rest days
- Galatasaray 5Fenerbahçe 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Galatasaray 3 · Fenerbahçe 3
- Referee
- A. Karaoglan
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
