Saint-Étienne vs Nantes prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Saint-Étienne to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53% · ✗ 1 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean Saint-Étienne: the coach cites a 23-3 home scoring record and five home wins, the dressing room a 14-point gap, and even the sceptic, after flagging five draws in six head-to-head meetings, still puts the home side clear.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Saint-Étienne's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks Nantes are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersA home side scoring three a game at home against one conceding 1.78 points to goals and a home win.
Both teams score 56% for both clubs, so I'd edge the over slightly above the line at 58%.
Saint-Étienne: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFirst against fourteenth and a 14-point gap make Saint-Étienne firm favourites.
Both had 7 days' rest with one game in a fortnight, so fatigue favours neither.
Saint-Étienne: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongH2H history of five draws in six makes 58% for the home win look a touch rich.
Head-to-head reads Saint-Étienne 0 wins, Nantes 1, five draws, with last season's meeting 1-1. Nantes have won two of their last five away.
Nantes: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Saint-Étienne are favourites at 55%, with Nantes on 20% and the draw on 25%. Saint-Étienne are 1st and Nantes 15th in Ligue 2. In their last five league games, Saint-Étienne won three and Nantes two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Saint-Étienne win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Nantes win or draw
- 45%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Saint-Étienne and 1.0 from Nantes. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Saint-Étienne: last 6
WWDLWW · 12 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | at RED Star FC 93 | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Rodez | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Metz | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Dunkerque | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Montpellier | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | at Dijon | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWWW
Nantes: last 6
LDWLWD · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Dunkerque | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Reims | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Boulogne | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Sochaux | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | at Guingamp | 3–3 | D |
Last 5 away: WLDLW
Season stats
| Saint-Étienne | Nantes | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.44 | Goals scored per game | 1.22 |
| 0.89 | Goals conceded per game | 1.78 |
| 3.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 78% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 44% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint-Étienne | 10 | +15 | 25 | WWWDL |
| 2 | Nancy | 10 | +4 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Montpellier | 9 | +6 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Reims | 9 | +8 | 17 | WDDWD |
| … | |||||
| 12 | Sochaux | 10 | -4 | 11 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Rodez | 10 | -6 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Boulogne | 9 | +0 | 9 | WDLDD |
| 15 | Nantes | 10 | -6 | 8 | LLDWL |
| 16 | Grenoble | 10 | -8 | 8 | LLLDW |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 10 | -5 | 7 | LDLDD |
| 18 | Laval | 10 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Saint-Étienne won 0, Nantes 1, 5 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan 2025 | Saint-Étienne | 1–1 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Nantes | 2–2 | Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 |
| 21 May 2022 | Nantes | 1–1 | Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 |
| 22 Dec 2021 | Saint-Étienne | 0–1 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| 3 Feb 2021 | Saint-Étienne | 1–1 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| 20 Sep 2020 | Nantes | 2–2 | Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 |
Match context
- Rest days
- Saint-Étienne 7Nantes 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Saint-Étienne 1 · Nantes 1
- Referee
- Gael Angoula
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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