Dunkerque vs Metz prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Metz to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 57% · bookies 57% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
The coach sees clear goals both ways given Dunkerque's zero clean sheets and Metz's 78% both-teams-score rate, nudging the over above the published 57%, while the sceptic and the table view keep it closer to the line. A competitive, open match with Metz marginally ahead is the shared reading.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Dunkerque's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Dunkerque favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky defences point to goals at both ends
Dunkerque keep no clean sheets and concede 1.67 a game; Metz concede 1.44 and both teams score in 78% of their matches. Dunkerque score 1.40 at home, Metz 1.67 overall, so chances should flow both ways.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table pair with little separating them
Metz sit 7th on 13 points, Dunkerque 10th on 11, just two points apart after nine games. Both had six days' rest, though Metz played twice in 14 days. Dunkerque's mixed home form (L W D L W) suggests a tight, open contest.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMetz's away record argues the 40% is generous
Metz score just 0.75 a game away yet are priced at 40%, while their away form reads L L D D W. Dunkerque have lost four of nine but won their last away trip 3-2 at Nantes. Metz have won all four head-to-heads, which supports the away lean, but the away scoring rate looks thin.
Dunkerque: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Metz are slight favourites at 40%, with Dunkerque on 34% and the draw on 26%. Dunkerque are 10th and Metz 7th in Ligue 2. In their last five league games, Dunkerque won two and Metz two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Dunkerque win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Metz win or draw
- 66%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Dunkerque and 1.5 from Metz. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% | 26% | 40% | Stats preview | #588 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Dunkerque: last 6
WLLWDL · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Nantes | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Annecy | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Sep | at PAU | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Saint Etienne | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sep | vs Clermont Foot | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | at Nancy | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWDLW
Metz: last 6
WLDLWD · 12 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Sochaux | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Dijon | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Saint Etienne | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sep | at RED Star FC 93 | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Rodez | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | at Annecy | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LLDDW
Season stats
| Dunkerque | Metz | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | Goals scored per game | 1.67 |
| 1.67 | Goals conceded per game | 1.44 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 2.40 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 78% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 44% | Failed to score | 22% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PAU | 10 | +3 | 17 | WWWWL |
| 6 | RED Star FC 93 | 9 | +2 | 17 | LWWWW |
| 7 | Annecy | 10 | +2 | 16 | WLWLL |
| 8 | Metz | 10 | +2 | 14 | DWLDL |
| 9 | Dijon | 10 | -1 | 12 | LLWWW |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 10 | -2 | 12 | DWLLW |
| 11 | Guingamp | 10 | -2 | 11 | WLLLW |
| 12 | Sochaux | 10 | -4 | 11 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Rodez | 10 | -6 | 10 | WLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Dunkerque won 0, Metz 4, 0 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2025 | Metz | 1–0 | Dunkerque | Ligue 2 |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Dunkerque | 2–3 | Metz | Ligue 2 |
| 9 Dec 2024 | Metz | 2–0 | Dunkerque | Ligue 2 |
| 7 Jan 2018 | Dunkerque | 2–4 | Metz | Coupe de France |
Match context
- Rest days
- Dunkerque 6Metz 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Dunkerque 1 · Metz 2
- Referee
- Mickael Leleu
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
