PAU vs Grenoble prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
PAU to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
The coach and sceptic both flag goals as the uncertain part: the 47% over-2.5 line sits between the sceptic's caution and the coach's lean towards goals, so the match prices look right while the total is genuinely borderline.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think PAU's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPAU's home scoring edge meets a leaky Grenoble defence
Grenoble concede 1.67 per game and have kept only 33% clean sheets, while PAU score 1.22 per game overall. Grenoble's away record shows 6 scored and 10 conceded in their last 5 on the road. Both teams score in just 44% of PAU's matches, so goals may lean one way.
PAU: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePAU's four-match league winning run makes them firm favourites
PAU sit 6th on 14 points from 9 games, Grenoble 15th on 8. Grenoble have lost five of nine and lost their last two. Both had 7 days' rest, so freshness is equal.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHome favouritism looks fair, but the goals line may be a touch high
PAU's games go over 2.5 only 33% of the time.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
PAU are favourites at 54%, with Grenoble on 19% and the draw on 27%. PAU are 6th and Grenoble 15th in Ligue 2. In their last five league games, PAU won three and Grenoble one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- PAU win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Grenoble win or draw
- 46%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.6 goals from PAU and 0.9 from Grenoble. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% | 27% | 20% | Stats preview | #587 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
PAU: last 6
WWWLDD · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Guingamp | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Laval | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sep | vs Dunkerque | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Montpellier | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs Sochaux | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | at Rodez | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: WWDLL
Grenoble: last 6
LLDWLW · 6 scored, 7 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Boulogne | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Montpellier | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Clermont Foot | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | at Rodez | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | vs Annecy | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | at Laval | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LWWLL
Season stats
| PAU | Grenoble | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.22 | Goals scored per game | 0.89 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 22% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 44% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nancy | 10 | +4 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Montpellier | 9 | +6 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Reims | 9 | +8 | 17 | WDDWD |
| 5 | PAU | 10 | +3 | 17 | WWWWL |
| 6 | RED Star FC 93 | 9 | +2 | 17 | LWWWW |
| 7 | Annecy | 10 | +2 | 16 | WLWLL |
| 8 | Metz | 10 | +2 | 14 | DWLDL |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Rodez | 10 | -6 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 14 | Boulogne | 9 | +0 | 9 | WDLDD |
| 15 | Nantes | 10 | -6 | 8 | LLDWL |
| 16 | Grenoble | 10 | -8 | 8 | LLLDW |
| 17 | Clermont Foot | 10 | -5 | 7 | LDLDD |
| 18 | Laval | 10 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: PAU won 3, Grenoble 0, 3 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | PAU | 2–2 | Grenoble | Ligue 2 |
| 17 Oct 2025 | Grenoble | 1–1 | PAU | Ligue 2 |
| 28 Feb 2025 | PAU | 1–0 | Grenoble | Ligue 2 |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Grenoble | 1–1 | PAU | Ligue 2 |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Grenoble | 0–1 | PAU | Ligue 2 |
| 28 Oct 2023 | PAU | 3–2 | Grenoble | Ligue 2 |
Match context
- Rest days
- PAU 7Grenoble 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: PAU 1 · Grenoble 1
- Referee
- Henry Gabriel
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
