Toulouse vs Troyes prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Toulouse to win: 64%, about 2 in 3
Bookmakers agree with us.
The Verdict
Our analysis aligns closely with the bookmakers' view, as all three experts agreed on the home win probability. No analyst's view was significantly contradicted, as the consensus favored the home side based on form and historical data.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Toulouse host a patched-up, injury-hit Troyes side
Toulouse's announced XI matches their predicted first choice, with only Abu Francis (reported out, not confirmed by the club) doubtful and absent. Troyes are without Boura, Ouzenadji, Titi and Koné, and start Konaté (reported out, not confirmed by the club) in goal with Ripart (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and Gozzi (reported out, not confirmed by the club) drafted in. The tactical duel pits Toulouse's intact front four against a reshuffled Troyes back line.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureIn-form Toulouse host a Troyes side reeling from five straight defeats
Troyes are 17th with 4 points and on a five-match losing run, fighting relegation pressure.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongToulouse' strong attacking form and home advantage should secure a victory.
Toulouse has been netting multiple goals in each of their last four league fixtures. Troyes is in a relegation battle and has lost five consecutive league contests.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Toulouse enters this match with strong attacking form and a significant home advantage. Troyes is struggling near the bottom of the table and dealing with a substantial injury crisis. The match pits Toulouse' momentum against Troyes' relegation battle.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Toulouse win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Troyes win or draw
- 36%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Toulouse and 0.9 from Troyes. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 3–0 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 64% | 21% | 15% | 62% |
| AI analysts | 61% | 23% | 16% | 58% |
| Our forecast | 64% | 21% | 15% | – |
Verdict: All three analysts concur that the market has correctly weighted the factors favoring a home victory. The consensus is driven by Toulouse' superior current form and the historical advantage at the Stadium de Toulouse.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% | 19% | 18% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1143 | |
| 2 | 65% | 20% | 15% | Prices moved | #1281 | |
| 3 | 64% | 21% | 15% | Full analysis | #1369 | |
| 4 | 64% | 21% | 15% | Official lineups | #1464 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Toulouse: last 6
WDWDLD · 12 scored, 9 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Le Mans | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Monaco | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Le Havre | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Lorient | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Sep | vs Lille | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Stade Brestois 29 | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 at home: WLLW
Troyes: last 6
LLLLLW · 5 scored, 16 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Lens | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Marseille | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Angers | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Lille | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Strasbourg | 2–6 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Lorient | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWWW
Season stats
| Toulouse | Troyes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | Goals scored per game | 0.71 |
| 1.57 | Goals conceded per game | 2.29 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 57% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nice | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLWWL |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 | WWLLL |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 | WDWDL |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | -6 | 9 | WLWWL |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | -3 | 7 | LLLDW |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | -6 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | -5 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 17 | Troyes | 7 | -11 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | -6 | 2 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Toulouse won 4, Troyes 0, 2 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2023 | Toulouse | 4–1 | Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 14 Aug 2022 | Troyes | 0–3 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 9 Jul 2022 | Toulouse | 6–1 | Troyes | Friendlies Clubs |
| 6 Feb 2021 | Troyes | 1–1 | Toulouse | Ligue 2 |
| 3 Oct 2020 | Toulouse | 0–0 | Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| 27 Jan 2018 | Toulouse | 1–0 | Troyes | Ligue 1 |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 16G. Restes
Defenders
- 22R. Messali
- 3M. McKenzie
- 2R. Nicolaisen
- 12C. Tapé
Midfielders
- 15A. Dønnum
- 23C. Cásseres
- 14N. Sigur
- 8T. Jørgensen
Forwards
- 13J. Russell-Rowe
- 20C. Tengstedt
Substitutes (9)
- 6A. Vossah
- 1T. Collin
- 37Y. Azizi
- 18M. Amougou
- 94I. Diallo
- 9S. Hidalgo
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 31N. Schmidt
- 7Julián Vignolo
Goalkeeper
- 40H. Konaté
Defenders
- 2L. Maronnier
- 6A. Monfray
- 4M. Diaz
- 5P. Gozzi
Midfielders
- 17A. Mille
- 8M. Diop
- 29D. Karim
Forwards
- 10M. Ifnaoui
- 20R. Ripart
- 23T. Nkada
Substitutes (9)
- 33P. Beach
- 7K. Diawara
- 11I. Gomis
- 22H. Picard
- 26A. Phliponeau
- 9J. Le Douaron
- 36I. Soukouna
- 31Noah Donkor
- 34Lassana Simakha
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutM. NifloreInjury
- OutS. OppongCalf
- OutI. BouraHip
- OutY. KoneKnee
- OutA. OuzenadjiKnee
Show 1 more
- OutY. TitiLeg
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Toulouse is currently positioned 12th in the league with 9 points from seven matches.[2]
- Troyes sits in 17th place with four points after seven league fixtures.[2][5]
- Toulouse has a strong historical record against Troyes at home, having won the last 13 consecutive encounters at the venue.[4]
- Toulouse has demonstrated consistent attacking output, scoring multiple goals in each of its last four league matches.[4]
- Troyes is currently on a five-match losing streak in Ligue 1.[4][5]
Still unclear
- Whether Abu Francis will be available for Toulouse
- Whether Paolo Gozzi will be available for Estac Troyes
Sources
- news.maxifoot.fr – L1 : Toulouse-Troyes, les compos probables - Actu foot - Maxifoot
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Toulouse vs Troyes - prediction, team news, lineups
- onefootball.com – Toulouse v Troyes: mid-table push meets relegation fight - OneFootball (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Rest days
- Toulouse 8Troyes 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Toulouse 1 · Troyes 2
- Referee
- Geoffrey Kubler
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 3.03 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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