Marseille vs Le Havre AC prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Marseille to win: 65%, about 2 in 3
Bookmakers agree with us.
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with only a two-point trim on the home side following The Sceptic's fatigue concern, which is the largest shift given and leaves away at 16%. The Coach's view on severe Le Havre defensive absences lifting the home edge was not fully followed, because those doubts are mostly cosmetic against a bottom side that has not won all season.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Le Havre AC's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Le Havre AC favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Marseille host a Le Havre side missing six players - home edge is clear.
Marseille's predicted XI is confirmed with Gouiri (thigh doubt) and Højbjerg (in squad) both available; only Cornelius is definitely out. Le Havre are without Jelert, Pembélé, Zagadou and 3 more, forcing a reshuffled defence. Fofana comes into Le Havre's official XI.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureMarseille's league momentum should overcome European blues against winless bottom side Le Havre.
Marseille have won two straight Ligue 1 games to sit 10th, while Le Havre are 18th and still chasing their first win amid a squad overhaul. OM come off a third consecutive European defeat and the Vélodrome expects more than three points, so pressure is high on Genesio's side.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket near fair; Marseille slight edge but fatigue gives bottom side a small puncher's chance.
Marseille priced around 65% at home versus bottom-side Le Havre. League scoring is running at 3.05 goals per match.
Le Havre AC: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Marseille, 10th with back-to-back league wins, host bottom side Le Havre, who sit 18th without a win and travel with six players out. Marseille's midweek European defeat adds a note of fatigue and pressure, but the depth gap clearly favours the home side. Expect Le Havre to sit deep.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Marseille win or draw
- 84%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 81%
- Le Havre AC win or draw
- 35%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Marseille and 1.0 from Le Havre AC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 66% | 19% | 15% | 65% |
| AI analysts | 62% | 21% | 17% | 55% |
| Our forecast | 65% | 19% | 16% | – |
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market: the table gap and Le Havre's long absence list point home, but Marseille's three straight European defeats and the pressure at the Vélodrome argue against moving further above the bookmakers. A small trim of the home number and a slightly higher away chance reflects that fatigue and morale risk.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 22% | 21% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1148 | |
| 2 | 64% | 19% | 17% | Prices moved | #1325 | |
| 3 | 65% | 19% | 16% | Full analysis | #1376 | |
| 4 | 65% | 19% | 16% | Official lineups | #1462 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Marseille: last 6
LWLWLL · 9 scored, 10 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Sturm Graz UEFA Europa League | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Angers | 5–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Olympiakos Piraeus UEFA Europa League | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Estac Troyes | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Paris Saint Germain | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Sep | at Beşiktaş UEFA Europa League | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: LLLWD
Le Havre AC: last 6
LLLDLD · 5 scored, 10 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Auxerre | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Lille | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Toulouse | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Angers | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Stade Brestois 29 | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Lyon | 1–1 | D |
Last 3 away: LLD
Season stats
| Marseille | Le Havre AC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.71 |
| 1.43 | Goals conceded per game | 1.57 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 43% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 43% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Ligue 1 table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Marseille won 6, Le Havre AC 0, 0 draws; 4.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Le Havre AC | 0–1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Marseille | 6–2 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 |
| 10 May 2025 | Le Havre AC | 1–3 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 5 Jan 2025 | Marseille | 5–1 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 |
| 19 May 2024 | Le Havre AC | 1–2 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 8 Oct 2023 | Marseille | 3–0 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1J. de Lange
Defenders
- 33Emerson
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 21N. Aguerd
Midfielders
- 8H. Abdelli
- 6T. Nnadi
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 77A. Harit
- 22T. Weah
Forwards
- 14Igor Paixão
- 9A. Gouiri
Substitutes (9)
- 48K. Abdallah
- 74K. Bezahaf
- 25U. Garcia
- 7A. Gomes
- 42Nouhoum Kamissoko
- 19G. Kondogbia
- 11N. Maupay
- 18B. Meité
- 92T. Vermot
Goalkeeper
- 93G. Gallon
Defenders
- 15A. Seko
- 5A. Touba
Midfielders
- 26S. Ebonog
- 6J. Mwanga
- 14R. Ndiaye
- 7A. Richardson
Forwards
- 38R. Fofana
- 20D. Ouziad
- 25M. Samatta
- 27E. Koffi Vinette
Substitutes (9)
- 33Hakim Dongopandji
- 9J. Maja
- 17K. Mizuta
- 78D. Mosengo
- 97Mouhamed N'Diaye
- 30S. Nakamura
- 23V. Sasso
- 24G. Zohouri
- 16A. Bodart
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutD. CorneliusHip
- OutE. JelertThigh
- OutF. MambimbiAchilles Tendon
- OutL. Mpasi-NzauAchilles Tendon
Show 3 more
- OutT. PembeleMuscle
- OutA. ToureKnee
- OutS. ZagadouKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Marseille sit 10th in Ligue 1 with 9 points from 7 games, while Le Havre are 18th with 2 points.[1]
- Le Havre are without a league win this season, with one draw at home and one away.[1][2]
- Marseille's home league record this season is one win and two defeats.[1][2]
- The match is Ligue 1 Matchday 8 at the Stade Vélodrome on 25 October 2026.[1][2]
Still unclear
- Whether Gouiri (thigh) plays
- OM starting XI varies between sources (starting11 gives Kondogbia/Maupay/Nouhoum Kamissoko variant)
Sources
- news.maxifoot.fr – L1 : Marseille-Le Havre, les compos probables - Football - MAXIFOOT
- madeinfoot.ouest-france.fr – Ligue 1 - OM - Le Havre AC : les compos probables - MadeinFoot.com
Match context
- Rest days
- Marseille 2Le Havre AC 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Marseille 4 · Le Havre AC 1
- Referee
- Clement Turpin
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 3.03 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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