Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon prediction
Data modelGoals model, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Paris Saint Germain 39%)
Goals call3+ goals 54%
No bookmaker prices: these numbers come from our goals model only.
The Verdict
All three see a tight, high-quality top-of-table meeting with the model's 39-25-36 split roughly right. The Coach leans over on PSG's 86% both-teams-score rate, the Dressing Room notes PSG's extra two rest days and six-match winning run, while the Sceptic points to Lyon's league-best defence and last season's 1-2 win here. Over 2.5 around 54-58% is fair.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts read the numbers only.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo attack-minded sides make goals likely either way
Lyon concede just 0.71 per game and keep clean sheets 43%, yet over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of their games. Expect both sides to score.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop-two clash on even points, with fresh legs the difference
Both sit on 14 points from 7 games with identical W4 D2 L1 records, first versus second. PSG have won all six of their last six in all competitions, including a 4-2 win over Barcelona.
Paris Saint Germain: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongModel gives Lyon less credit than their away record deserves
Lyon are first with 13 goals conceded just 5, yet the model gives them only 36% and xG of 1.4. Slight Lyon lean.
Lyon: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
This is a data-only read
Our AI scouts have read the numbers for this match, not the team news.
Takes 1–3 minutes: we search the news and read the sources. Keep this page open, it reloads when the analysis is ready. It is saved for everyone who opens this match.
Full analysis in progress
Starting…
Usually 1–3 minutes. Keep this page open.
The full analysis is ready. Loading it…
The full analysis could not be completed. Please try again later.
Too many requests right now. Please try again in a few minutes.
In short
Paris Saint Germain are slight favourites at 39%, with Lyon on 36% and the draw on 25%. Paris Saint Germain are 4th and Lyon 3rd in Ligue 1. In their last five league games, Paris Saint Germain won four and Lyon three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Paris Saint Germain win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Lyon win or draw
- 61%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Paris Saint Germain and 1.4 from Lyon. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
No bookmaker priced this match, so the numbers come from our goals model: attack and defence ratings from this season's results in this league, with home advantage. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. The full analysis with team news can be requested on this page before kick-off. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% | 25% | 36% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1203 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Paris Saint Germain: last 6
WWWWWW · 17 scored, 7 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Barcelona UEFA Champions League | 4–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Strasbourg | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Manchester City UEFA Champions League | 4–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Le Mans | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Marseille | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Stade Brestois 29 | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWLW
Lyon: last 6
LWWLWW · 12 scored, 9 conceded
| 22 Oct | at 1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Nice | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Crystal Palace UEFA Europa League | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Lens | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rennes | 4–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | at Anderlecht UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWDW
Season stats
| Paris Saint Germain | Lyon | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.86 |
| 1.29 | Goals conceded per game | 0.71 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 86% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 86% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 43% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Ligue 1 table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Paris Saint Germain won 5, Lyon 1, 0 draws; 4.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Paris Saint Germain | 1–2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Lyon | 2–3 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Lyon | 2–3 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Paris Saint Germain | 3–1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 25 May 2024 | Lyon | 1–2 | Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Paris Saint Germain | 4–1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutO. DembeleThigh
- OutK. KvaratskheliaKnee
- OutMarquinhosThigh
Show 2 more
- OutN. MendesMuscle
- DoubtA. LongoniInjury
- OutL. OpendaLeg
- OutM. OuedraogoKnee
- OutN. TagliaficoMuscle
Show 2 more
- DoubtA. HamdaniNot available
- DoubtP. SulcKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Match context
- Travel for Lyon
- 393 km
- Rest days
- Paris Saint Germain 6Lyon 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Paris Saint Germain 3 · Lyon 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 13°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Jerome Brisard
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 3.03 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
