AS Monaco vs Lille prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
AS Monaco to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
The Verdict
Our numbers move only slightly from the bookmakers', shifting a small amount from home (50% to 47%) to away, following The Sceptic's 3-point nudge for Lille's head-to-head dominance and away defensive record. The Coach's view was not followed, as its case for Monaco's intact attack being decisive was outweighed by the confirmed absence lists and rotation uncertainty.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Lille's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Lille favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsMonaco's full attack edges a striker-less Lille in a tight tactical duel.
Monaco start Camara despite doubt; Dier and Idumbo out. Lille have no Igamane (ACL) or Ueda (foot), with Giroud benched and Diaoune leading the line; Tiago Santos also out. Both keep strong defensive cores, with Zakaria-Camara vs Andre-Bentaleb the key midfield duel.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureEvenly matched rivals with momentum in Monaco's corner and history in Lille's.
Both sides sit on 14 points and the winner could go top. Monaco are unbeaten at Louis II, conceding once or fewer in four of those games. Lille have won the last three league meetings, but arrive on a three-match winless run in all competitions.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongLille's H2H streak and stingy away defense argue Monaco aren't worth near-even odds.
Lille have won the last three league meetings, including 0-1 at Louis II in May 2026, and concede joint-fewest in Ligue 1 (5) with two clean sheets in three away games. League games here have run 3.05 goals per match.
Lille: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Two sides on 14 points meet at Stade Louis II, with the winner able to go top temporarily. Monaco are unbeaten at home this season but Lille have won the last three league meetings. Both played European football in midweek, so rotation is likely, and Lille travel without their recognised forwards.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AS Monaco win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Lille win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 64%
- 3+ goals
- 37%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 42%
- No
- 58%
We expect about 1.3 goals from AS Monaco and 0.9 from Lille. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 50% | 27% | 23% | 52% |
| AI analysts | 43% | 29% | 28% | 50% |
| Our forecast | 47% | 28% | 24% | – |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market, with a small move away from Monaco towards Lille because the market gives little weight to Lille's head-to-head streak and joint-best defensive record, while Monaco's own availability doubts and rotation risk temper the home edge.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% | 28% | 31% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1053 | |
| 2 | 49% | 28% | 23% | Prices moved | #1312 | |
| 3 | 47% | 29% | 24% | Full analysis | #1353 | |
| 4 | 47% | 28% | 24% | Official lineups | #1419 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AS Monaco: last 6
WLWDWD · 10 scored, 6 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs SC Freiburg UEFA Europa Conference League | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Lorient | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Oct | at CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa Conference League | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Lens | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Strasbourg | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDWWW
Lille: last 6
LDLWLW · 7 scored, 10 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Galatasaray UEFA Champions League | 2–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Stade Brestois 29 | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | at Arsenal UEFA Champions League | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Le Havre | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Nice | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Estac Troyes | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWWW
Season stats
| AS Monaco | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.43 | Goals scored per game | 1.43 |
| 0.86 | Goals conceded per game | 0.71 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 29% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 57% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 8 | +5 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 2 | AS Monaco | 8 | +4 | 15 | DLDWD |
| 3 | Lyon | 7 | +8 | 14 | WLWDW |
| 4 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | +5 | 14 | WWWWL |
| 5 | Paris FC | 8 | +4 | 14 | LWLWD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AS Monaco won 1, Lille 4, 1 draw; 1.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | AS Monaco | 0–1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Lille | 1–0 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Lille | 2–1 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 18 Oct 2024 | AS Monaco | 0–0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 24 Apr 2024 | AS Monaco | 1–0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Lille | 2–0 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1L. Hrádecký
Defenders
- 2Vanderson
- 72Sadibou Sané
- 4J. Teze
- 20Flávio Nazinho
Midfielders
- 8L. Camara
- 6D. Zakaria
- 28M. Coulibaly
- 10A. Golovin
- 31Ansu Fati
Forward
- 29Paris Josua Brunner
Substitutes (9)
- 49I. Touré
- 7M. Detourbet
- 9F. Balogun
- 11M. Abline
- 37E. Diop
- 16P. Köhn
- 13C. Mawissa Elebi
- 18T. Minamino
- 22M. Salisu
Goalkeeper
- 1B. Özer
Defenders
- 3N. Ngoy
- 23T. Nianzou
- 4Alexsandro Ribeiro
- 15R. Perraud
Midfielders
- 17N. Mukau
- 6N. Bentaleb
- 21B. André
Forwards
- 8E. Mbappé
- 10H. Haraldsson
- 35S. Diaoune
Substitutes (9)
- 7D. Bakwa
- 26I. Cossier
- 12O. Gill
- 9O. Giroud
- 38M. Goffi
- 14M. Kjærgaard
- 28G. Perrin
- 24C. Verdonk
- 33Matah Yondjio
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutE. DierMuscle
- OutS. IdumboGroin
- OutH. IgamaneKnee
- OutT. SantosKnee
- OutA. UedaFoot
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Monaco sit 5th and Lille 3rd, both on 14 points from 7 games, so the winner could move top temporarily.[3][5]
- Monaco are unbeaten at Stade Louis II this season and have conceded one goal or fewer in four of those home games.[3]
- Lille have won the last three league meetings with Monaco, including 1-0 away at Louis II in May 2026.[3]
- Monaco lost 1-0 at Lorient in their last league game but beat Freiburg 3-0 in the Conference League on 22 October.[2][3]
- Lille drew 1-1 with Brest in the league and lost 4-2 to Galatasaray in the Champions League, leaving them on a three-match winless run in all competitions.[2][3]
- Lille have the joint-fewest goals conceded in Ligue 1 with 5 and have kept two clean sheets in three away league games.[3]
- Both coaches may rotate after midweek European fixtures played within three days of this match.[3]
- Paris Brunner leads Monaco with 4 Ligue 1 goals and scored against Freiburg.[3]
Sources
- goal.com – Monaco - Lille en direct : chaîne TV, live stream et heure de coup d ...
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Monaco vs Lille - prediction, team news, lineups
- bbc.co.uk – Monaco vs Lille: French Ligue 1 stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-25)
Match context
- Rest days
- AS Monaco 2Lille 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: AS Monaco 3 · Lille 3
- Referee
- Francois Letexier
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 3.05 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
