AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour forecast
Who wins?
AJ Auxerre to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Bookmakers agree with us.
The Verdict
Our final numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only one point from away to home (45% to 46%) to reflect Le Mans' six injury absences and reserve call-ups without overstating medium-quality data. The Sceptic's 3-point shift on away was not fully followed, because Auxerre's own six absentees and 17 goals conceded in 7 games temper the home lean.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think AJ Auxerre's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsAuxerre's fuller squad edges a depleted, makeshift Le Mans side at home.
Le Mans are without six players (Colas, Larouci, Voyer and 3 more); Videira has called up reserves including his son Lenny. Auxerre miss six too, but their predicted XI (Nardi; Makosso, Tuanzebe, Akpa, Sy; Ahamada, Danois; Faivre, Archer, Namaso) is settled, with Archer in form.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureIn-form Auxerre at home should edge a struggling, stretched Le Mans side.
Auxerre have 9 points from their last 12 and target a 4th win in 5 Ligue 1 games. Le Mans sit 16th in the relegation play-off spot, winless in the league since 19 Sep, and the coach says internal solutions are needed. The visitors wear black armbands after Robert Brunet's death.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongDepleted Le Mans visit a resurgent Auxerre side chasing a fourth win in five.
Auxerre have conceded 17 and Le Mans 15 in seven games, pointing to goals.
AJ Auxerre: slightly underrated
Low AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Auxerre, 13th with 9 points from 7 games, host a depleted Le Mans side sitting 16th with 6 points. Auxerre have won three of their last four league matches, while Le Mans are without a win since 19 September and have six players unavailable. Home form and squad depth give Auxerre a modest edge.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AJ Auxerre win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Le Mans win or draw
- 54%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 71%
- 3+ goals
- 46%
- 4+ goals
- 24%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.5 goals from AJ Auxerre and 1.1 from Le Mans. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 45% | 26% | 28% | 56% |
| AI analysts | 50% | 26% | 24% | 56% |
| Our forecast | 46% | 26% | 27% | – |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Auxerre's own six absences and defensive record offset the home advantage, leaving only a small edge from Le Mans' deeper depletion.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 21% | 36% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1146 | |
| 2 | 47% | 26% | 27% | Prices moved | #1303 | |
| 3 | 46% | 26% | 27% | Full analysis | #1372 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AJ Auxerre: last 6
WLWWLL · 9 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Le Havre | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Rennes | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Stade Brestois 29 | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Nice | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | at Lyon | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Angers | 1–3 | L |
Last 4 at home: WWLL
Le Mans: last 6
LLWDDL · 8 scored, 13 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Toulouse | 0–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Paris Saint Germain | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Lorient | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Lens | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Nice | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | at Rennes | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LDLLW
Season stats
| AJ Auxerre | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57 | Goals scored per game | 1.43 |
| 2.43 | Goals conceded per game | 2.14 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 86% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 86% |
| 86% | Both teams scored | 86% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 | WWLLL |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 | WDWDL |
| 13 | AJ Auxerre | 7 | -6 | 9 | WLWWL |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | -3 | 7 | LLLDW |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | -6 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | -5 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | -11 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | -6 | 2 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: AJ Auxerre won 3, Le Mans 1, 1 draw; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2020 | AJ Auxerre | 3–2 | Le Mans | Friendlies Clubs |
| 10 Jan 2020 | Le Mans | 0–1 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
| 2 Aug 2019 | AJ Auxerre | 2–0 | Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| 25 Jan 2013 | AJ Auxerre | 1–1 | Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| 20 Aug 2012 | Le Mans | 3–1 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1P. Nardi
Defenders
- 15C. Makosso
- 4A. Tuanzebe
- 92C. Akpa
Midfielders
- 27L. Sy
- 8N. Ahamada
- 5K. Danois
- 22F. Oppegård
- 21R. Faivre
- 10D. Namaso
Forward
- 9C. Archer
Substitutes (9)
- 77Aristide Zossou
- 23M. Diop
- 20S. Diomandé
- 34L. Dioubate
- 17P. Ekwah
- 47Youssef Khoudda
- 32R. Mandengue
- 35E. Legros
- 46A. Piedfort
Goalkeeper
- 98N. Kocik
Defenders
- 19D. Sidibé
- 17S. Yohou
- 16Raúl Torrente
Midfielders
- 18L. Buadés
- 29L. Bretelle
- 8A. Lauray
- 22L. Calodat
Forwards
- 9A. Rabillard
- 14L. Mafouta
- 13H. Diallo
Substitutes (9)
- 26R. Bamba
- 15N. Boissé
- 7B. Brahimi
- 25D. Guèye
- 20W. Harhouz
- 1E. Hatfout
- 23D. Traoré
- 10J. Vercruysse
- 36Lenny Videira
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutA. DiousseKnee
- OutS. FofanaGroin
- OutR. Labeau LascaryInjury
Show 3 more
- OutB. OkohKnee
- OutM. SenayaHamstring
- OutT. SiweMuscle
- OutA. BourabaaAnkle
- OutE. ColasInjury
- OutY. LarouciGroin
Show 1 more
- OutH. VoyerThigh
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Auxerre are 13th in Ligue 1 with 9 points from 7 games, with 2 wins and 1 defeat at home.[5]
- Le Mans sit 16th, the relegation play-off spot, with 6 points from 7 games and no away win this season (0W 1D 2L).[5]
- Auxerre have taken 9 points from their last 12 available and won 3-1 at Le Havre on 18 October.[4]
- Le Mans lost their last two league games, 0-3 against Toulouse and 1-3 at Paris Saint-Germain, and their last win came on 19 September.[4]
- Auxerre also have six players out injured, so neither side has a full squad.[1]
- Both teams concede heavily: Auxerre have allowed 17 goals and Le Mans 15 in 7 league games.[5]
Still unclear
- Goal.com's Le Mans XI differs from French sources (includes Boisse, Traore, Buades; omits Bamba, Lauray) - French local press lineups likely more accurate
- Whether Videira gives his son Lenny Videira minutes
- Auxerre squad change mentioned by L'Yonne but details cut off
Sources
- news.maxifoot.fr – L1 : Auxerre-Le Mans, les compos probables - Actu foot - Maxifoot
- goal.com – AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans : heure de coup d'envoi, chaîne TV et live ...
- bbc.co.uk – Auxerre vs Le Mans: French Ligue 1 stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-25)
- africafootunited.com – Le Mans FC : opéré avec succès, Bourabaa ne devrait pas rejouer avant ...
Match context
- Rest days
- AJ Auxerre 7Le Mans 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: AJ Auxerre 1 · Le Mans 1
- Referee
- Willy Delajod
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 3.05 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
