Angers vs Lorient prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Lorient to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 47%
Bookmakers agree with us.
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only one point from home to away because the form gap is largely priced in, though our over 2.5 estimate rises to 55%. The Sceptic's view of no deviation was not followed, because Angers' 15 goals conceded and Lorient's four clean sheets justify a small away lean beyond the market line.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Lorient's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsLorient's defensive solidity and strong form give them the edge in this encounter.
Angers has suffered back-to-back heavy league defeats, conceding 15 goals in 14 matches. Lorient's current lineup utilizes a 3-4-2-1 formation.
Lorient: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
mood and pressureLorient's winning run and calm defense meet an Angers side reeling from two heavy defeats.
Angers sit 15th with 7 points after losing 5-1 at Brest and 5-2 at home to Marseille, conceding 15 in seven games. Lorient are 7th-8th with 11 points, on a three-match league winning run including 1-0 over Monaco, with only 6 conceded and four clean sheets. Lorient's coach and staff are former Angers men returning to Raymond-Kopa.
Lorient: clearly underrated
More goalsMed The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket prices this Ligue 1 clash tightly; no clear mispricing either way
Prices: home 3.11, draw 3.31, away 2.48, over 2.5 at 2.06 - the model's 32/29/39 and 47% over match almost exactly. Nothing the facts show diverges from the quoted prices.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Angers, 15th with 7 points, host Lorient on Ligue 1 matchday 8 after two heavy defeats. Lorient sit 8th with 11 points and arrive on a three-match winning run with a strong defensive record. Both sides have injury absences, and Angers may adjust their defensive setup.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Angers win or draw
- 59%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Lorient win or draw
- 70%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Angers and 1.6 from Lorient. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 31% | 29% | 40% | 47% |
| Goals model | 32% | 29% | 39% | 47% |
| AI analysts | 29% | 28% | 42% | 67% |
| Our forecast | 30% | 29% | 41% | 55% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market: the form gap and Angers' defensive problems are already priced in, and the only modest adjustment is a small further lean to Lorient given the winning run and clean-sheet record, plus a slightly higher over 2.5 estimate given Angers' concessions.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% | 26% | 43% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1145 | |
| 2 | 32% | 29% | 39% | Prices moved | #1302 | |
| 3 | 30% | 29% | 40% | Full analysis | #1368 | |
| 4 | 30% | 29% | 41% | Official lineups | #1461 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Angers: last 6
LLWDLW · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Marseille | 2–5 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Stade Brestois 29 | 1–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Estac Troyes | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Le Havre | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Rennes | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LWLLD
Lorient: last 6
WWLDWL · 7 scored, 6 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Monaco | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Paris FC | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Le Mans | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Lens | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Estac Troyes | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LWDWW
Season stats
| Angers | Lorient | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 2.14 | Goals conceded per game | 0.86 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 57% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 57% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Paris FC | 8 | +4 | 14 | LWLWD |
| 6 | Lens | 8 | +4 | 13 | WWWLD |
| 7 | Rennes | 7 | +1 | 13 | LWLWW |
| 8 | Lorient | 7 | +1 | 11 | WWLDW |
| 9 | Nice | 8 | -2 | 11 | WLWWL |
| 10 | Marseille | 7 | +4 | 9 | WWLLL |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | +2 | 9 | LDWLL |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | +1 | 9 | WDWDL |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | -6 | 9 | WLWWL |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | -3 | 7 | LLLDW |
| 15 | Angers | 7 | -6 | 7 | LLWDL |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | -5 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 7 | -11 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | -6 | 2 | LLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Angers won 3, Lorient 2, 1 draw; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | Angers | 2–1 | Lorient | Friendlies Clubs |
| 15 Feb 2026 | Lorient | 2–0 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Angers | 2–0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 9 Aug 2025 | Angers | 1–0 | Lorient | Friendlies Clubs |
| 3 Aug 2024 | Lorient | 2–1 | Angers | Friendlies Clubs |
| 5 Feb 2023 | Lorient | 0–0 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Anthony Lopes
Defenders
- 27L. Rao-Lisoa
- 2C. Arcus
- 4O. Camara
- 21J. Lefort
- 17J. Kalulu
Midfielders
- 14Y. Belkhdim
- 8B. van den Boomen
- 10A. Sbaï
Forwards
- 9P. Peter
- 19A. El Ouazzani
Substitutes (9)
- 93H. Belkebla
- 26A. Bermont
- 11Djibirin Harouna
- 34M. Gernigon
- 20Marius Louër
- 7U. Simbakoli
- 6L. Mouton
- 18J. Allevinah
- 16M. Zinga
Goalkeeper
- 38Y. Mvogo
Defenders
- 32N. Adjei
- 3M. Talbi
- 95S. Touré
Midfielders
- 20D. Sylla
- 62A. Avom
- 8N. Cadiou
- 43K. Kouassi
- 17J. Makengo
- 19S. Faye
Forward
- 18I. Baldé
Substitutes (9)
- 55N. Obaretin
- 11T. Le Bris
- 30S. Kuzmić
- 42M. Kone
- 21B. Kamara
- 2A. Georgen
- 33G. Bernardeau
- 15A. Tosin
- 10I. Jensen
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutB. DiattaAnkle
- OutP. KatserisMuscle
- DoubtB. FadigaMuscle
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Angers are 15th in Ligue 1 with 7 points from 7 games and have lost three of four home matches this season.[1][4]
- Angers come into this game after heavy defeats, 5-1 at Brest and 5-2 at home to Marseille.[4]
- Lorient have conceded only six goals in seven league games and kept four clean sheets.[4]
- Angers have scored 9 and conceded 15 in the league so far.[1][4]
- A win would lift Angers to 10 points, while Lorient would reach 14 points and strengthen their top-half position.[4]
- El Ouazzani has two league goals and two assists, and Angers cross frequently from open play.[4]
Still unclear
- Whether Gilli actually deploys a back five vs the predicted back four
- Identity of Angers' 4 doubtful players and their availability
Sources
- news.maxifoot.fr – L1 : Angers-Lorient, les compos probables - Football MAXIFOOT
- onefootball.com – Angers v Lorient: top-half push meets early-season reset - OneFootball
Match context
- Rest days
- Angers 7Lorient 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Angers 1 · Lorient 1
- Referee
- Azzedine Souifi
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 3.03 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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