Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Stade Brestois 29 to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only about one point from the draw to Brest. The Sceptic's suggested nudge to roughly 45% for the home side was not followed in full, because the supporting evidence is thin and Brest's own absences offset much of Nice's disruption.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsBrest's settled XI edges an injury-hit Nice back three
Brest name their usual 4-2-3-1 with Baldé (reported out, not confirmed by the club) fit to start, though Chardonnet, Le Guen and Diop (reported out, not confirmed by the club) are out. Nice switch to a 3-4-2-1, Abdelmonem (reported out, not confirmed by the club) coming in, with Abdi, Bombito, Mendy and Abergel all injured. Key duel: Brest's front line against an unfamiliar Nice back three.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureEvenly matched mid-table sides; Brest's home form gives them a slight edge in a game with goals.
Brest sit 10th with 9 points from 7, fresh off a 5-1 win over Angers and a 1-1 draw at Lille. Nice are 13th with 8 points, scoring just 6 goals in 7 games with mixed recent results.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongNice's patched-up defence faces Brest's strong home scoring; goals look likely.
The last three head-to-heads produced 4-1, 2-2 and 6-0.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Brest host Nice in Ligue 1 with one point and three places between them. Nice remain winless away this season and travel with four injured players, while Brest are missing three defenders themselves. Both teams are reshuffled, so we stay close to the market with a marginal home lean.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Stade Brestois 29 win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Nice win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 42%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Stade Brestois 29 and 1.0 from Nice. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 44% | 28% | 29% | 56% |
| AI analysts | 43% | 27% | 30% | 56% |
| Our forecast | 44% | 27% | 28% | – |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because both squads are heavily affected by injuries: Nice's four absentees and makeshift back line favour Brest, but Brest's own defensive losses and Nice's home form elsewhere limit how far we can push the hosts.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 29% | 29% | Stats preview | #601 | |
| 2 | 44% | 27% | 28% | Full analysis | #675 | |
| 3 | 44% | 27% | 28% | Official lineups | #769 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Stade Brestois 29: last 6
DWLLWD · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Lille | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Angers | 5–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Auxerre | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Paris Saint Germain | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Le Havre | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
Last 3 at home: WLD
Nice: last 6
LWWLDL · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Lyon | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Strasbourg | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Lille | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Auxerre | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Le Mans | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | at Paris FC | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLW
Season stats
| Stade Brestois 29 | Nice | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | Goals scored per game | 0.86 |
| 1.43 | Goals conceded per game | 1.29 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 0.33 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 86% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 14% | Failed to score | 43% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Ligue 1 table
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 won 1, Nice 2, 3 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Nice | 2–2 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 | 4–1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 17 May 2025 | Nice | 6–0 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Stade Brestois 29 | 0–1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 4 Feb 2024 | Stade Brestois 29 | 0–0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 1 Oct 2023 | Nice | 0–0 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1E. Selvik
Defenders
- 70K. Lala
- 29L. Tousart
- 4G. Lloris
- 2B. Locko
Midfielders
- 13J. Chotard
- 8H. Magnetti
- 17Mama Baldé
- 23K. Doumbia
- 9P. Mboup
Forward
- 19L. Ajorque
Substitutes (9)
- 18J. Bourgault
- 39D. N´Guessan
- 7J. Nonge Boende
- 30M. Patouillet
- 20L. Zogbe
- 21Ibrahim Yayiya Kante
- 11N. Edjouma
- 6M. Diambou
- 32L. C. Laine M.
Goalkeeper
- 23Y. Diouf
Defenders
- 36A. Seidu
- 55Y. Ndayishimiye
- 5Mohamed Abdelmonem
Midfielders
- 92J. Clauss
- 28A. Witsel
- 6H. Boudaoui
- 27N. Nkounkou
- 7G. Hein
- 9M. Amoura
Forward
- 11E. Wahi
Substitutes (9)
- 39D. Coulibaly
- 10S. Diop
- 21I. Jansson
- 84H. Koutoune
- 35X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 41D. Morana
- 29N. Ngoumou
- 77T. Boulhendi
- 8M. Sanson
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutB. ChardonnetCalf
- OutR. Le GuenBroken Leg
- OutG. VersiniLeg
- OutA. AbdiMuscle
- OutL. AbergelKnee
- OutM. BombitoLeg
Show 1 more
- OutA. MendyKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Brest sit 10th in Ligue 1 with 9 points from 7 games, having scored 13 and conceded 10.[5]
- Nice are 13th with 8 points from 7 games, scoring only 6 goals while conceding 9.[5]
- Nice have won none and lost all three of their away league matches this season.[5]
- Brest drew 1-1 at Lille on 17 October and beat Angers 5-1 in their previous league game.[5]
- Nice lost 1-2 at Lyon on 18 October after beating Strasbourg 2-1.[5]
Sources
- madeinfoot.ouest-france.fr – Ligue 1 - Stade Brestois - OGC Nice : les compos probables
- m.maxifoot.fr – L1 : Brest-Nice, les compos probables - Maxifoot
- news.maxifoot.fr – L1 : Brest-Nice, les compos probables - Football - Actu foot - Maxifoot
- bbc.co.uk – Brest vs Nice: French Ligue 1 stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Rest days
- Stade Brestois 29 6Nice 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Stade Brestois 29 2 · Nice 2
- Referee
- Guillaume Paradis
- Goals in this league
- Ligue 1 average: 3.05 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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