2–2

Tue 20 OctUK time (GMT)

Full time

Newport County 11thDWDWD

Rotherham United vs Newport County prediction

Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast

Who wins?

Rotherham to win: 43%, about 2 in 5

Rotherham43%Bookies 44

Draw28%Bookies 28

Newport29%Bookies 28

Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 48% · ✓ 4 goals

The Verdict

Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only one point from home to away, as Newport's unbeaten form is tempered by their winless away record. The Sceptic's six-point shift toward Newport was not followed, because Newport have still not won a league game on the road and their cautious away shape limits the upside.

! Drawn: we gave a draw 28% Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

What our AI analysts say

2 of 3 think Newport County's chances are better than the bookmakers say.

The Coach

tactics and lineups

Newport's settled back five and fuller squad edge a depleted Rotherham side.

Rotherham's 3-4-2-1 is without Tavares, Otoo and Kaleta, with only Lolos returning; Sebine doubtful. Newport's 4-2-3-1 keeps a settled back five that has brought resilience on the road; Doidge and Crole out, Etete likely bench after his scoring cameo. Key duel: Mullin against Newport's central trio.

✓ In line with bookmakers

The Dressing Room

mood and pressure

In-form Newport look steadier than a Rotherham side winless in six and sliding toward the bottom.

Rotherham are 23rd with ten points, winless in six and without a home win since August, with manager Alex Bruce under pressure. Newport sit 11th, unbeaten in eight, though still chasing a first away win of the season.

Newport: slightly underrated More goalsLow✗ Wrong

The Sceptic

where the market may be wrong

Rotherham priced as clear favourites despite winless run and injuries; Newport's unbeaten form looks underweighted.

Market: Rotherham 44.2%, draw 27.5%, Newport 28.2%; over 2.5 at 48.3%. The model without market input has Newport ahead (39% vs 33%).

Newport: clearly underrated Med✗ Wrong

AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best

In short

Rotherham United, 23rd and winless in six, host an unbeaten-in-eight Newport County side yet to win away this season. Newport's back-five road setup has brought stability, while Rotherham are missing three players. The market leans home; our numbers stay close, with a small tilt to the away side.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Rotherham United win or draw: 71%
Either team wins (no draw): 72%
Newport County win or draw: 57%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 79%
3+ goals: 56%
4+ goals: 34%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 59%
No: 41%

We expect about 1.6 goals from Rotherham United and 1.3 from Newport County. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 0–1 (7%).

How we got to these numbers

Home = Rotherham United win, Away = Newport County win.
	Home	Draw	Away	3+ goals
Bookmakers	44%	28%	28%	48%
Goals model	33%	28%	39%	48%
AI analysts	34%	28%	38%	64%
Our forecast	43%	28%	29%	56%

Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Newport's own away-win drought and low-scoring road profile largely cancel out Rotherham's poor form and injuries; only a one-point tilt from home to away is justified.

Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	20 Oct 13:59	43%	28%	29%	First analysis	#349
2	20 Oct 19:00	43%	28%	29%	Official lineups	#380

Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Rotherham United: last 6

LLLLDD · 3 scored, 13 conceded

17 Oct	at Fleetwood Town	0–2	L
10 Oct	vs Gillingham	1–4	L
6 Oct	vs Bradford EFL Trophy	0–4	L
3 Oct	at Exeter City	0–1	L
26 Sep	vs Crewe	1–1	D
22 Sep	at York EFL Trophy	1–1	D

Last 5 at home: LLDDW

Newport County: last 6

DWDDWW · 8 scored, 4 conceded

17 Oct	vs York	1–1	D
10 Oct	vs Colchester	1–0	W
6 Oct	vs Plymouth EFL Trophy	2–2	D
3 Oct	at Gillingham	0–0	D
26 Sep	vs Grimsby	2–1	W
22 Sep	at Swindon Town EFL Trophy	2–0	W

Last 5 away: DWDLL

Season stats

Rotherham United		Newport County
1.09	Goals scored per game	1.27
1.64	Goals conceded per game	1.18
1.60	Scored per game at home	1.67
0.67	Scored per game away	0.80
45%	Matches over 2.5 goals	45%
64%	Both teams scored	55%
9%	Clean sheets	36%
27%	Failed to score	27%
2.18	Yellow cards per game	1.82

League matches only, 11 games each.

When goals come

Goals scored this season by 15-minute period.
Minutes	Rotherham United	Newport County
0–15 min	4	2
16–30 min	4	2
31–45 min	3	2
46–60 min	1	4
61–75 min	2	3
76–90 min	4	5

League Two table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
13	Tranmere	13	+0	16	DWLDL
14	Swindon Town	13	-3	16	DWDLL
15	Bristol Rovers	13	-4	16	DLLLL
16	Newport County	13	+0	15	LDDWD
17	Rochdale	13	-7	15	LDLDW
18	Fleetwood Town	13	-2	14	LLWDL
19	Northampton	11	+0	13	WLWDL
20	Oldham	12	-4	12	DLWDL
21	Colchester	12	-5	12	LDDLD
22	Rotherham United	13	-6	12	DDLLL
23	Port Vale	11	-6	12	LDWWL
24	Crawley Town	11	-9	6	DLLDL

Full League Two table · Predicted final table

Head-to-head

This is the first time Newport County have visited the New York Stadium.[5]

Team news: lineups Confirmed

Rotherham United3-4-2-1

Goalkeeper

13J. Eyestone

Defenders

2J. Rafferty
27D. Iorfa
26H. Douglas

Midfielders

12D. Hall
8K. Spence
15Jayce Fitzgerald
24J. Buyabu
23A. Nemane
22Jamie Jellis

Forward

10P. Mullin

Substitutes (7)

14Sonny Aljofree
4J. Austerfield
9T. Bradshaw
1T. Cann
28Brandon Ashley Cover
20K. Lolas
5K. Ngwenya

Newport County3-4-1-2