Cheltenham Town vs Fleetwood Town prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Fleetwood to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✓ 6 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with only a one-point drift from home to draw because Fleetwood's form advantage is partly built on cup games. The Sceptic's nudge toward the home side was not followed, as the recent 2-0 head-to-head win came with better availability than Cheltenham have now.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Cheltenham Town's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Cheltenham Town favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Fleetwood face a Cheltenham side reshuffling midfield after a long-term injury loss - slight away edge.
Cheltenham lose Tomlinson to a torn hamstring tendon requiring surgery, out ~12 weeks. Fleetwood field an unchanged-looking 3-1-4-2 with no injury absences, while Cheltenham's XI includes youth options Willcox and Otchere in a shuffled midfield.
Cheltenham: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
mood and pressureFleetwood's unbeaten run meets a Cheltenham side stung by a heavy defeat.
Cheltenham sit 8th on 15 points but arrive off a 1-4 defeat at Oldham and two straight league losses. Cheltenham won the reverse fixture 2-0 at home earlier this month.
Cheltenham: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket may be too keen on Fleetwood given Cheltenham's recent home win over them.
Cheltenham won the reverse fixture 2-0 at home on 4 Oct; the H2H series is tied 2-2-1. League scoring runs at 2.48 goals per game this season.
Cheltenham: slightly underrated
Low✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Cheltenham won the reverse fixture 2-0 at home, but they lose Joe Tomlinson long-term. Our numbers stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cheltenham Town win or draw
- 57%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Fleetwood Town win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Cheltenham Town and 1.5 from Fleetwood Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 0–2 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 30% | 27% | 43% | 51% |
| Goals model | 38% | 28% | 34% | 52% |
| AI analysts | 34% | 28% | 37% | 52% |
| Our forecast | 29% | 28% | 43% | 51% |
Verdict: The market's lean toward Fleetwood is broadly justified by form and availability, so our numbers stay close to it; only the memory of the recent head-to-head keeps a little value on the home side.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cheltenham Town: last 6
LDLLWD · 7 scored, 13 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Oldham | 1–4 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Salford City | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Accrington ST | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Chesterfield | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Exeter City EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 at home: DLWDD
Fleetwood Town: last 6
WDWLLL · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Rotherham | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Walsall | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs Barnsley EFL Trophy | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Salford City | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Rochdale | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | at Oldham EFL Trophy | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLDD
Season stats
| Cheltenham Town | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Goals scored per game | 1.09 |
| 1.82 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.17 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 73% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 27% |
| 82% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 18% |
| 2.64 | Yellow cards per game | 2.64 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Cheltenham Town | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | +8 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 13 | +0 | 21 | WWLLL |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | +9 | 19 | WDDDW |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cheltenham Town won 2, Fleetwood Town 3, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | Fleetwood Town | 2–2 | Cheltenham Town | League Two |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Cheltenham Town | 2–0 | Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Fleetwood Town | 2–0 | Cheltenham Town | League Two |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Cheltenham Town | 0–2 | Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| 29 Mar 2024 | Fleetwood Town | 1–2 | Cheltenham Town | League One |
| 3 Oct 2023 | Cheltenham Town | 0–2 | Fleetwood Town | League One |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 23W. Stanway
Defenders
- 3J. Tomkinson
- 6J. Wilson
- 25P. Sweeney
- 33F. Willcox
Midfielders
- 7B. Stevenson
- 19J. Evans
- 9K. Otchere
- 8C. McCann
- 26J. Shipley
Forward
- 18A. Weimann
Substitutes (6)
- 11J. Bickerstaff
- 14R. Broom
- 31M. Diallo
- 10G. Miller
- 21G. Nurse
- 20Favour Onukwuli
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Lynch
Defenders
- 26S. Rooney
- 6R. Bennett
- 5F. Potter
Midfielders
- 4H. Neal
- 14L. McCann
- 15A. Murphy
- 10M. Helm
- 24Jake Thomas Batty
Forwards
- 19R. Coughlan
- 9W. Davies
Substitutes (7)
- 17C. Evans
- 20A. Loupalo-Bi
- 22J. Pradic
- 28J. Robertson
- 27C. McLean
- 16Conor Haughey
- 29R. Cirino
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Tomlinson | Cheltenham Town | Out | [3] |
Key facts
- Cheltenham are 8th with 15 points from 11 games, one point ahead of 12th-placed Fleetwood on 14.[1]
- Cheltenham have lost three of their last four league games, including 1-4 at Oldham on 17 October.[1]
- Fleetwood's away record this season is modest: one win, two draws and two defeats.[1]
- Cheltenham's home record of three wins, one draw and one defeat is the stronger half of their league form.[1]
- Cheltenham's Joe Tomlinson is out until January after hamstring surgery.[3]
- Cheltenham have scored 17 and conceded 11 in the league; Fleetwood's figures are 12 for and 13 against.[1]
Sources
Match context
- Stadium
- Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire
- 7,066 seats · grass
- Travel for Fleetwood Town
- 233 km
- Rest days
- Cheltenham Town 3Fleetwood Town 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cheltenham Town 3 · Fleetwood Town 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- S. Cotterill
- Cheltenham Town, since Aug 2026
- M. Lawlor
- Fleetwood Town, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
