Gillingham vs Port Vale prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Port Vale to win: 40%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only a few points towards the home side because Port Vale's away record and Gillingham's home form are partly offset by Vale's defensive run and King's doubt. The Sceptic's large shift towards Gillingham was not followed, because its 14-point move overstates the certainty given Vale's three consecutive 1-0 wins and the lack of Port Vale team news.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Gillingham's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsGillingham's home strength edges a tight one despite King doubt
Gillingham go 3-4-3 with Eaves leading the line despite limited match fitness; King (knee) is a doubt after Ainsworth called losing him 'a big blow'. Port Vale name a full 3-5-2 with no rotation, Garrity and Byers in midfield against Little and Coleman.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureSixth-placed Gillingham at home look steadier than a Port Vale side winless away in the league this season.
Gillingham sit 6th with 16 points and have won at Bristol Rovers and Tranmere at Priestfield, while Port Vale are 21st with 11 points and no away league win (1 scored, 8 conceded on the road). Vale arrive on three straight 1-0 wins. The hosts are chasing momentum on a tight schedule.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongVale's away record looks far worse than their away price suggests at Priestfield.
Gillingham sit 6th with a strong home record, yet the away side is priced near 2.26. Head-to-head is tight (2-2-1 last five).
Gillingham: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Sixth-placed Gillingham host a Port Vale side that has won three straight league games but has no away league win this season. Gillingham's home form is solid, though Eli King is a knee doubt. We lean slightly towards the home side compared with the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Gillingham win or draw
- 60%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Port Vale win or draw
- 69%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 43%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Gillingham and 1.3 from Port Vale. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 29% | 28% | 43% | 43% |
| Goals model | 51% | 30% | 19% | 35% |
| AI analysts | 48% | 30% | 22% | 36% |
| Our forecast | 31% | 29% | 40% | 43% |
Verdict: Our numbers move only slightly from the market because Port Vale's three straight clean-sheet wins offset their winless away league record, while Gillingham's home strength and King's doubt roughly balance out.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Gillingham: last 6
LWWDLL · 10 scored, 14 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Accrington ST | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Brighton U21 EFL Trophy | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Rotherham | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Newport County | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | at York | 0–3 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Cambridge United EFL Trophy | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDLWW
Port Vale: last 6
WWWDLW · 6 scored, 3 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Chesterfield | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Grimsby | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Mansfield Town EFL Trophy | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Chesterfield EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Walsall | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Exeter City | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DLLLL
Season stats
| Gillingham | Port Vale | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Goals scored per game | 0.56 |
| 1.18 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 0.80 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 0.25 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 11% |
| 45% | Both teams scored | 22% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 44% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 44% |
| 2.64 | Yellow cards per game | 2.22 |
League matches only, 11 and 9 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Gillingham | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | +0 | 17 | LDLWD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | +0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| … | |||||
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | -6 | 12 | LDWWL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | -9 | 6 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Gillingham won 2, Port Vale 2, 2 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | Port Vale | 0–1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Gillingham | 1–0 | Port Vale | League Two |
| 11 Feb 2017 | Gillingham | 1–1 | Port Vale | League One |
| 17 Sep 2016 | Port Vale | 2–1 | Gillingham | League One |
| 16 Apr 2016 | Gillingham | 0–2 | Port Vale | League One |
| 15 Aug 2015 | Port Vale | 1–1 | Gillingham | League One |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1O. Wright
Defenders
- 5A. Smith
- 19O. Beckles
- 20J. Daley
Midfielders
- 16J. Brophy
- 6E. Coleman
- 8A. Little
- 3Conor McManus
Forwards
- 22N. Freeman
- 10Ronan Hale
- 39T. Eaves
Substitutes (7)
- 30S. Booth
- 40R. Luthra
- 12G. McCleary
- 24H. Waldock
- 26L. Dobbs
- 18S. Kendall
- 27M. Luxton
Goalkeeper
- 20M. Maroši
Defenders
- 25C. Humphreys
- 4J. Moon
- 5C. Hall
Midfielders
- 6J. Lawrence-Gabriel
- 8B. Garrity
- 7G. Byers
- 33G. Hall
- 2K. John
Forwards
- 36M. Watters
- 11O. Hernández
Substitutes (7)
- 10K. Dempsey
- 3J. Headley
- 22L. Montsma
- 1J. Smith
- 38R. Walters
- 14O. Lynch
- 24K. Figueroa
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli King | Gillingham | Doubt | |
| Tom Eaves | Gillingham | Returning |
Key facts
- Gillingham sit 6th in League Two with 16 points from 11 games.[4]
- Port Vale are 21st with 11 points from 9 games, so they have games in hand.[4]
- Port Vale have lost all four away league games this season, scoring once and conceding eight on the road.[4]
- Gillingham have won two and drawn two of five home league games, with wins over Bristol Rovers and Tranmere at Priestfield.[4]
- Gillingham lost 3-1 at Accrington Stanley in their most recent league game on 17 October.[4]
Sources
- leaguespy.com – Gillingham vs Port Vale Preview: Injuries and Suspension + Predicted ...
Match context
- Stadium
- Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham, Kent
- 11,582 seats · grass
- Travel for Port Vale
- 258 km
- Rest days
- Gillingham 3Port Vale 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Gillingham 3 · Port Vale 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 9 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- G. Ainsworth
- Gillingham, since Mar 2025
- J. Brady
- Port Vale, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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