Rochdale vs Grimsby Town prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Grimsby to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 55% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
Our final numbers stay close to the bookmakers', because Rochdale's injury list and Grimsby's away record pull in opposite directions. The Sceptic's home lean was not followed: its four-point shift relies on Grimsby's losing run, but that is already in the price, and the larger availability gap argued for by The Coach limits Rochdale's upside.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Grimsby Town's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks Rochdale are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsGrimsby's full-strength XI faces a Rochdale side missing nine players — visitors edge it.
Rochdale are without Ramming (thigh, 10 weeks) plus long-term absentees Ebanks-Landell, East, Maguire and 3 more, while Bilongo, Smith and Rodney remain out. Grimsby report no injuries and start new signings Andy Cook, Jamie Walker, Joe Foulkes and Maldini Kacurri. Key duel: Cook's experience against a patched-up Rochdale back line led by Aden Flint.
Grimsby: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureTwo slumping mid-table sides; home edge lost to injuries, so it stays tight and cautious between them.
Rochdale saw a five-game unbeaten run end with defeat at Crewe on Saturday. Grimsby arrive on four straight league defeats, sliding after a strong start of 3 wins and 4 draws in their first seven. The sides sit level on points, one apart in the table.
Grimsby: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongGrimsby's four-game slide makes home odds look short at Spotland-side rates.
Pinnacle make Grimsby 44.7% to Rochdale's 29.8% despite Grimsby losing their last four league games and Rochdale sitting a point ahead on the table. The H2H is tight over 50 meetings (19-8-23), most recently a 1-0 Grimsby win in March 2023.
Rochdale: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Two mid-table sides separated by one point meet at Spotland. Rochdale's unbeaten run ended at Crewe and they carry a long injury list, while Grimsby arrive on four straight league defeats despite a full-strength squad. The market leans away, and our numbers stay close to it.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Rochdale win or draw
- 55%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Grimsby Town win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Rochdale and 1.6 from Grimsby Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 0–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 30% | 25% | 45% | 55% |
| Goals model | 39% | 29% | 31% | 44% |
| AI analysts | 35% | 29% | 37% | 45% |
| Our forecast | 29% | 26% | 45% | 55% |
Verdict: The market already prices in Rochdale's long injury list and Grimsby's away record; our numbers stay close to it, with only a small tilt towards the draw given two out-of-form, closely matched sides.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Rochdale: last 6
LDLWWD · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Crewe | 2–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Tranmere | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Huddersfield EFL Trophy | 0–5 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Swindon Town | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Fleetwood Town | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Liverpool U21 EFL Trophy | 3–3 | D |
Last 5 at home: WDWLW
Grimsby Town: last 6
LLDLLL · 3 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Northampton | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Port Vale | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Burton Albion EFL Trophy | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Shrewsbury | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Newport County | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | at Notts County EFL Trophy | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLDD
Season stats
| Rochdale | Grimsby Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | Goals scored per game | 1.18 |
| 1.36 | Goals conceded per game | 1.18 |
| 1.60 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 45% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 1.73 | Yellow cards per game | 1.64 |
League matches only, 11 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Rochdale | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | +0 | 17 | LDLWD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | +0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Rochdale won 2, Grimsby Town 2, 0 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2025 | Rochdale | 2–0 | Grimsby Town | Friendlies Clubs |
| 11 Mar 2023 | Grimsby Town | 1–0 | Rochdale | League Two |
| 13 Aug 2022 | Rochdale | 0–1 | Grimsby Town | League Two |
| 14 Aug 2018 | Grimsby Town | 0–2 | Rochdale | League Cup |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 20Sam William John Waller
Defenders
- 13O. Adebayo-Rowling
- 44A. Flint
- 3Kaiden Wilson
- 2C. Tasker
Midfielders
- 8H. Gilmour
- 17B. Adeeko
- 7C. Hayes
- 14E. Francis
- 45G. Middleton
Forward
- 39D. Brown
Substitutes (7)
- 11Z. Silcott-Duberry
- 33S. Beckwith
- 19L. Hannant
- 40I. Henderson
- 26S. Sherring
- 12J. Spaven
- 21Kane Taylor
Goalkeeper
- 31C. Pym
Defenders
- 5H. Rodgers
- 2M. Kacurri
- 12J. Foulkes
Midfielders
- 15G. Turi
- 14J. Amaluzor
- 4K. Green
- 7J. Walker
- 30C. Vernam
Forwards
- 39A. Cook
- 9Iwan Morgan
Substitutes (7)
- 1H. Cartwright
- 8Cian Doyle
- 10S. Finch
- 11Ryley Reynolds
- 50Malaki Jahiem Golding
- 28F. Cartwright
- 23H. Brown
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Rochdale sit one point above Grimsby Town in the table, with 14 points from 11 league games to Grimsby's 13.[1]
- Rochdale's five-game unbeaten run ended with a 2-3 defeat at Crewe on 17 October.[1]
- Grimsby have lost their last four league games, including a 0-2 home defeat to Northampton Town.[1]
- Grimsby have yet to win away in the league this season, with three draws and two defeats.[1]
- Rochdale have a long injury list, with several long-term absentees plus Bilongo, Smith and Rodney pushing for returns.[1]
- Josh Andrews returns to his former club Rochdale with Grimsby, one of several new signings including Andy Cook.[1]
- This is Rochdale's first home game in over a fortnight, under manager Ian Watson.[1]
Sources
- rochdaleafc.co.uk – Preview | Grimsby Town (H) - Rochdale AFC (2026-10-19)
Match context
- Stadium
- Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale, Greater Manchester
- 10,249 seats · grass
- Travel for Grimsby Town
- 137 km
- Rest days
- Rochdale 3Grimsby Town 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Rochdale 2 · Grimsby Town 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 9 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Declan Bourne
- Coaches
- Ian Watson
- Rochdale, since Aug 2026
- D. Artell
- Grimsby Town, since Nov 2023
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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