Chesterfield vs Colchester United prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Chesterfield to win: 63%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with only a small nudge towards the home side for Colchester's injuries and winless run. The Sceptic's case for a bigger draw share was not followed, as Colchester's winless seven-game run and poor away record outweigh their draw habit.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Chesterfield are underrated; The Sceptic thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Chesterfield host a patched-up, injury-hit Colchester midfield.
Chesterfield name an unchanged-quality XI with no reported absences. Colchester are without Teddy Bishop and described as 'a lot out', with Paul Digby shuffled between CB and No.8 and Frankie Terry stepping up - a makeshift midfield facing Chesterfield's attacking trio of Koroma, Markanday and Bonis.
Chesterfield: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureChesterfield's steadier form and home edge face a Colchester side winless in seven.
Chesterfield sit 7th with 15 points; Colchester are 20th on an seven-game league winless run, often conceding late. The captain admits frustration with injuries and luck. Chesterfield won the last league meeting 3-0 at home.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket too keen on Chesterfield; Colchester's draw habit makes the stalemate live.
Market: home 62.9%, draw 20.7%, away 16.4%; over 2.5 at 58.9%. The goals model gives Chesterfield only 51% and over 2.5 just 50%. H2H is split: Chesterfield won 3-0 at home in March, Colchester won 6-2 away in October 2025.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Chesterfield, 7th with 15 points, host a Colchester United side 20th in the table and winless in seven league games. Chesterfield won the last league meeting 3-0 at home.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Chesterfield win or draw
- 84%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Colchester United win or draw
- 37%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 2.1 goals from Chesterfield and 1.0 from Colchester United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%), 1–1 (9%), 3–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 63% | 21% | 16% | 59% |
| Goals model | 51% | 26% | 23% | 50% |
| AI analysts | 54% | 26% | 20% | 52% |
| Our forecast | 63% | 21% | 16% | 59% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay at the market level: Colchester's winless run, away record and midfield absences support the home favourite, but Chesterfield's own recent defeats and Colchester's draw tendency argue against moving further. The goals line also stays where the market has it, with Colchester's low-scoring recent games offsetting the league's scoring environment.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Chesterfield: last 6
LDWLDW · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Port Vale | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Crawley Town | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Tranmere | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Cheltenham | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Port Vale EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs York | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDWWD
Colchester United: last 6
DLDDLD · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Exeter City | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Newport County | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Luton EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Shrewsbury | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Sep | at Peterborough EFL Trophy | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Cheltenham | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LDLLL
Season stats
| Chesterfield | Colchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.36 | Goals conceded per game | 1.30 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 55% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 64% | Both teams scored | 60% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 2.00 | Yellow cards per game | 1.20 |
League matches only, 11 and 10 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Chesterfield | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | +9 | 19 | WDDDW |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| … | |||||
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester United | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | -6 | 12 | LDWWL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | -9 | 6 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Chesterfield won 1, Colchester United 2, 3 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | Chesterfield | 3–0 | Colchester United | League Two |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Colchester United | 6–2 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 4 Mar 2025 | Colchester United | 1–0 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 22 Oct 2024 | Chesterfield | 1–1 | Colchester United | League Two |
| 30 Dec 2017 | Chesterfield | 0–0 | Colchester United | League Two |
| 12 Sep 2017 | Colchester United | 1–1 | Chesterfield | League Two |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 23R. Boot
Defenders
- 33R. Hutton
- 15A. Pond
- 6J. Simpson
- 19L. Gordon
Midfielders
- 20G. McEachran
- 8R. Stirk
- 24D. Markanday
- 18L. Marsh
- 37J. Koroma
Forward
- 10L. Bonis
Substitutes (7)
- 7L. Mandeville
- 26J. Eccleston
- 27K. Dyer
- 11D. Duffy
- 9F. Bryden
- 4T. Naylor
- 46T. Pearce
Goalkeeper
- 22T. Lo-Tutala
Defenders
- 30K. Vincent-Young
- 5J. Tucker
- 24F. Terry
- 3E. Iandolo
Midfielders
- 26J. Williams
- 2R. Hunt
- 12M. Sesay
- 6P. Digby
- 17Jaden Williams
Forward
- 9B. Ihionvien
Substitutes (7)
- 11L. Chiwome
- 39K. Connelly
- 47R. Harvey
- 44S. Kuffour
- 4Ben Perry
- 20S. Raggett
- 27O. Thorn
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bishop | Colchester United | Out | [2] |
Key facts
- Chesterfield sit 7th in League Two with 15 points from 11 games; Colchester United are 20th with 11 points from 10.[3]
- Chesterfield have been stronger at home (two wins, two draws, one defeat) than away this season.[3]
- Colchester United are winless in their last seven league games.[1]
- Colchester have taken no away league win this season, with two draws and three defeats on the road.[3]
- Colchester have drawn three of their last five matches and kept a clean sheet against Exeter City last time out.[1]
- Chesterfield lost their most recent league game 1-0 at Port Vale.[3]
- Colchester have conceded late in games and dropped points as a result, per their captain.[1]
- Chesterfield won the last league meeting between the sides 3-0 at home in March 2026.[1][3]
Sources
- gazette-news.co.uk – What Jack Tucker wants Colchester United to rectify at Chesterfield - Colchester Gazette (2026-10-20)
- gazette-news.co.uk – The Paul Digby decision facing Danny Cowley ahead of Chesterfield clash - Colchester Gazette (2026-10-20)
- bbc.com – Chesterfield vs Colchester United: League Two stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-19)
Match context
- Stadium
- SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
- 10,338 seats · grass
- Travel for Colchester United
- 217 km
- Rest days
- Chesterfield 3Colchester United 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Chesterfield 2 · Colchester United 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 10 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- P. Cook
- Chesterfield, since Feb 2022
- D. Cowley
- Colchester United, since Jan 2024
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.48 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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