Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Sevilla to win: 52%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 58% · bookies 57% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' prices, moving only a few points from home to draw and away, as we weigh Sevilla's defensive wobble and the Osasuna head-to-head record against their strong home form. The Sceptic's view was not fully followed, since its case for a larger away tilt was tempered by Sevilla's three defeats all coming against top-three opponents.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Osasuna's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Osasuna favourites. The Coach thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsSevilla's defensive stability is severely tested by Osasuna's tactical setup and form.
Sevilla is missing Miguel Sierra and Marcao due to injury.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureSevilla's form dip gives Osasuna and Arrasate a real chance at Nervión.
Sevilla sit 6th on 14 pts but have lost three straight, conceding 3+ each time. Osasuna just beat Racing 2-0 in Arrasate's first game back after 1 pt in five; he is unbeaten in 10 meetings with Sevilla.
Osasuna: slightly underrated
More goalsLow✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongOsasuna's decade-long unbeaten record vs Sevilla makes the home price tighter than it looks.
Budimir has scored in three straight league games and at Sánchez-Pizjuán in his last two visits.
Osasuna: slightly underrated
More goalsLow✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Sevilla host Osasuna at a reopened Sánchez-Pizjuán, with Sevilla 6th on 14 points and Osasuna 12th on 11. Sevilla come off heavy defeats to Real Madrid and Barcelona, while Osasuna won Arrasate's first game back 2-0.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sevilla win or draw
- 80%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Osasuna win or draw
- 48%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 68%
- 3+ goals
- 41%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 44%
- No
- 56%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Sevilla and 0.8 from Osasuna. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (11%), 0–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 54% | 27% | 19% | 43% |
| Goals model | 55% | 23% | 22% | 64% |
| AI analysts | 49% | 27% | 24% | 57% |
| Our forecast | 52% | 28% | 20% | 42% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Sevilla's poor recent form is offset by their strong home record and the fact their only defeats came against top-three sides, while Osasuna's away record remains weak despite the head-to-head edge.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% | 28% | 22% | Stats preview | #1518 | |
| 2 | 51% | 28% | 21% | Full analysis | #1573 | |
| 3 | 52% | 28% | 20% | Official lineups | #1612 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sevilla: last 6
LDLWWD · 8 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Levante | 3–3 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Barcelona | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Deportivo La Coruna | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 at home: LWLW
Osasuna: last 6
WLDLLL · 7 scored, 17 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Racing Santander | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Real Betis | 2–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | at Atletico Madrid | 0–4 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Espanyol | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Alaves | 2–5 | L |
Last 4 away: LLLW
Season stats
| Sevilla | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.56 | Goals scored per game | 1.11 |
| 1.78 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 0.80 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| 78% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 22% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | +15 | 24 | WWWLW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | +2 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | +1 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | +0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | -10 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | -3 | 10 | LWDDL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sevilla won 1, Osasuna 2, 3 draws; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Osasuna | 2–1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Sevilla | 1–0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 24 Apr 2025 | Osasuna | 1–0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Sevilla | 1–1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 28 Jan 2024 | Sevilla | 1–1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Osasuna | 0–0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1O. Vlachodimos
Defenders
- 2Juan Iglesias
- 5Andrés Castrín
- 4Kike Salas
- 17G. Suazo
Midfielders
- 21C. Ejuke
- 6L. Agoumé
- 24Y. Fofana
- 20Félix Correia
Forwards
- 16Isaac
- 19L. Stassin
Substitutes (12)
- 22José Ángel Carmona
- 3Julio Díaz del Romo
- 10Peque Fernández
- 7Alfon González
- 13Fran González
- 18Jon Guridi
- 8G. Kochorashvili
- 15Fábio Cardoso
- 12A. Sangante
- 9R. Ure
- 11R. Vargas
- 14Manu Bueno
Goalkeeper
- 13Aitor Fernández
Defenders
- 19V. Rosier
- 24Catena
- 22F. Boyomo
- 23Abel Bretones
Midfielders
- 7Moncayola
- 6Lucas Torró
- 16Moi Gómez
Forwards
- 14Rubén García
- 17A. Budimir
- 21Jonathan Dubasin
Substitutes (12)
- 1Sergio Herrera
- 31Rafa Fernández
- 27Íñigo Arguibide
- 35U. Santos
- 29Asier Osambela
- 48R. Yeboah
- 15Diego Rico
- 26Mauro Echegoyen
- 18Raul Moro
- 8Iker Muñoz
- 9Raúl García
- 11Kike Barja
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutMarcaoMuscle
- OutM. SierraShoulder
- OutA. BonelNot available
- OutR. Del CastilloMuscle
- OutJ. HerrandoMuscle
Show 1 more
- OutA. OrozHamstring
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- All three of Sevilla's league defeats this season came against top-three opponents, including a 1-4 loss at Real Madrid on 18 October.[4]
- Sevilla have conceded three or more goals in each of their last three league matches.[4]
- Sevilla have scored in all nine league games but netted more than once at home only once this season.[4]
- Osasuna are 12th with 11 points and won Arrasate's first game back 2-0 against Racing Santander, their first clean sheet since August.[4]
- Osasuna have lost three of four away games this season, conceding four or more in each defeat.[4]
- Budimir has scored in three straight league games and scored in his last two visits to the Sánchez-Pizjuán.[4]
- Sevilla's probable side may feature Ure up front if Stassin is not fully fit, with Kochorashvili back from a calf issue.[1]
Sources
- estadiodeportivo.com – Alineaciones Sevilla- Osasuna: alineación probable de Sevilla y Osasuna ...
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Sevilla vs Osasuna - prediction, team news, lineups
Match context
- Travel for Osasuna
- 707 km
- Rest days
- Sevilla 8Osasuna 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sevilla 1 · Osasuna 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 21°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.02 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
