Racing Club vs Independiente prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Racing Club to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 63% · bookies 62% · ✓ 2 goals
In short
Racing Club are slight favourites at 42%, with Independiente on 27% and the draw on 31%. Racing Club are 10th and Independiente 7th in Liga Profesional. In their last five league games, Racing Club won two and Independiente two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Racing Club win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 69%
- Independiente win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 64%
- 3+ goals
- 37%
- 4+ goals
- 17%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 43%
- No
- 57%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Racing Club and 0.9 from Independiente. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 2–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 31% | 27% | Stats preview | #59 | |
| 2 | 44% | 30% | 26% | Updated news and prices | #93 | |
| 3 | 42% | 31% | 27% | Official lineups | #175 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Racing Club: last 6
LWWLLL · 8 scored, 11 conceded
| 11 Oct | vs Belgrano Cordoba | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Oct | at Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Sarmiento Junin | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | at Huracan | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sep | vs Atletico Tucuman | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | at Independ. Rivadavia | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: LWLDL
Independiente: last 6
DLWDWL · 5 scored, 9 conceded
| 12 Oct | at Talleres Cordoba | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Instituto Cordoba | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Union Santa Fe | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs San Lorenzo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Central Cordoba de Santiago | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Gimnasia M. | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DWWWL
Season stats
| Racing Club | Independiente | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | Goals scored per game | 1.24 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded per game | 1.21 |
| 1.07 | Scored per game at home | 1.29 |
| 1.06 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 55% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 21% |
League matches only, 30 and 29 games.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lanus | 31 | +8 | 48 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Defensa Y Justicia | 30 | +4 | 46 | WLWWD |
| 6 | Estudiantes L.P. | 30 | +12 | 45 | LDWLW |
| 7 | Independiente | 30 | +1 | 43 | DDLWD |
| 8 | San Lorenzo | 31 | -5 | 41 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Gimnasia M. | 30 | -7 | 39 | LLWLD |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 31 | -1 | 38 | DLLLL |
| … | |||||
| 7 | Huracan | 32 | +2 | 44 | LLLWW |
| 8 | Barracas Central | 29 | +1 | 40 | DWWLD |
| 9 | Sarmiento Junin | 30 | -6 | 40 | LDDWL |
| 10 | Racing Club | 31 | -4 | 36 | DLWWL |
| 11 | Tigre | 30 | +0 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 12 | Banfield | 30 | -7 | 32 | DLWDD |
| 13 | Atletico Tucuman | 30 | -5 | 31 | WLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Racing Club won 1, Independiente 2, 3 draws; 1.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Independiente | 1–0 | Racing Club | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Racing Club | 0–0 | Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Independiente | 1–1 | Racing Club | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Racing Club | 0–0 | Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 24 Feb 2024 | Independiente | 0–1 | Racing Club | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 30 Sep 2023 | Racing Club | 0–2 | Independiente | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Match context
- Travel for Independiente
- 5 km
- Rest days
- Racing Club 6Independiente 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Racing Club 2 · Independiente 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Referee
- F. Tello
- Goals in this league
- Liga Profesional average: 2.27 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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