Estudiantes de La Plata vs San Lorenzo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Estudiantes de La Plata to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 62% · bookies 62% · ✗ 3 goals
In short
Estudiantes de La Plata are favourites at 48%, with San Lorenzo on 22% and the draw on 30%. Estudiantes de La Plata are 5th and San Lorenzo 10th in Liga Profesional. In their last five league games, Estudiantes de La Plata won two and San Lorenzo two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Estudiantes de La Plata win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 70%
- San Lorenzo win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 65%
- 3+ goals
- 38%
- 4+ goals
- 18%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 42%
- No
- 58%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Estudiantes de La Plata and 0.9 from San Lorenzo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%), 2–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 30% | 22% | Stats preview | #43 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Estudiantes de La Plata: last 6
DDWLWW · 9 scored, 5 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Flamengo CONMEBOL Libertadores | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Central Cordoba de Santiago | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Oct | vs Gimnasia M. | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Lanus | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Sep | at Corinthians CONMEBOL Libertadores | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Platense | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWDD
San Lorenzo: last 6
WLLDWL · 3 scored, 7 conceded
| 11 Oct | vs Deportivo Riestra | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Defensa Y Justicia | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Boca Juniors | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Independiente | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Talleres Cordoba | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Sep | at Instituto Cordoba | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LDLDL
Season stats
| Estudiantes de La Plata | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.17 | Goals scored per game | 0.69 |
| 0.72 | Goals conceded per game | 0.90 |
| 1.53 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.79 | Scored per game away | 0.40 |
| 34% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 14% |
| 24% | Both teams scored | 28% |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 48% |
| 45% | Failed to score | 41% |
League matches only, 29 games each.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Instituto Cordoba | 29 | +10 | 50 | WDWWW |
| 4 | Lanus | 31 | +8 | 48 | DWWDW |
| 5 | Defensa Y Justicia | 30 | +4 | 46 | WLWWD |
| 6 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 30 | +12 | 45 | LDWLW |
| 7 | Independiente | 30 | +1 | 43 | DDLWD |
| 8 | San Lorenzo | 31 | -5 | 41 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Gimnasia M. | 30 | -7 | 39 | LLWLD |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 31 | -1 | 38 | DLLLL |
| 11 | Newells Old Boys | 30 | -9 | 36 | DWLDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Estudiantes de La Plata won 0, San Lorenzo 1, 5 draws; 1.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | San Lorenzo | 1–0 | Estudiantes de La Plata | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 5 Nov 2024 | San Lorenzo | 1–1 | Estudiantes de La Plata | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 13 Feb 2024 | San Lorenzo | 1–1 | Estudiantes de La Plata | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 20 Sep 2023 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 0–0 | San Lorenzo | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 21 Jun 2023 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 1–1 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 7 Aug 2022 | San Lorenzo | 0–0 | Estudiantes de La Plata | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Match context
- Rest days
- Estudiantes de La Plata 2San Lorenzo 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Estudiantes de La Plata 3 · San Lorenzo 1
- Referee
- S. Martinez
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
