Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Vanspor FK to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52% · bookies 52% · ✓ 2 goals
In short
Vanspor FK are slight favourites at 43%, with Ümraniyespor on 30% and the draw on 27%. Vanspor FK are 18th and Ümraniyespor 17th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Vanspor FK won one and Ümraniyespor one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Vanspor FK win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Ümraniyespor win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Vanspor FK and 1.2 from Ümraniyespor. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 27% | 30% | Stats preview | #26 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Vanspor FK: last 6
WLLDDL · 5 scored, 11 conceded
| 13 Oct | at Pendikspor | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Bandırmaspor | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Antalyaspor | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Keçiörengücü | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Muğlaspor | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Sep | vs Batman Petrolspor | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDLWL
Ümraniyespor: last 6
DWLLLD · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 9 Oct | vs Sarıyer | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | at Bandırmaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Antalyaspor | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | at Pendikspor | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Sep | vs Muğlaspor | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | at Keçiörengücü | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 away: WLDL
Season stats
| Vanspor FK | Ümraniyespor | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.78 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.11 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game at home | 0.60 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 10 and 9 games.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | +1 | 16 | WLLDW |
| 11 | Sarıyer | 12 | -3 | 16 | LDLDW |
| 12 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | +7 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | +3 | 13 | WWDWL |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | -3 | 13 | LDDWD |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 12 | -4 | 12 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Pendikspor | 12 | -9 | 11 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | -2 | 10 | LDLLD |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 12 | -9 | 10 −2 | WLWLL |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 12 | -22 | 5 | LLLLW |
| 20 | Boluspor | 11 | -22 | 1 | LLLLD |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Vanspor FK won 1, Ümraniyespor 3, 0 draws; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Ümraniyespor | 1–2 | Vanspor FK | 1. Lig |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Vanspor FK | 0–1 | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig |
| 25 Mar 2012 | Ümraniyespor | 2–1 | Vanspor FK | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
| 22 Dec 2011 | Vanspor FK | 0–1 | Ümraniyespor | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
Match context
- Rest days
- Vanspor FK 4Ümraniyespor 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Vanspor FK 2 · Ümraniyespor 1
- Referee
- Turgut Doman
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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