Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 prediction

Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model

Who wins?

Esenler Erokspor to win: 48%, about 1 in 2

Esenler Erokspor48%Bookies 48

Draw28%Bookies 28

Mardin 196924%Bookies 24

Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53% · ✗ 6 goals

✓ Favourite won (Esenler Erokspor 48%) Ledger record ↗

AI forecastStats & H2HLineups & info

In short

Esenler Erokspor are favourites at 48%, with Mardin 1969 on 24% and the draw on 28%. Esenler Erokspor are 17th and Mardin 1969 6th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Esenler Erokspor won one and Mardin 1969 three.

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Win or draw (double chance)

Esenler Erokspor win or draw: 76%
Either team wins (no draw): 72%
Mardin 1969 win or draw: 52%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals: 72%
3+ goals: 47%
4+ goals: 25%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes: 50%
No: 50%

We expect about 1.5 goals from Esenler Erokspor and 1.0 from Mardin 1969. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (8%).

How these numbers are made

A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.

Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology

Prediction history

#	Published	Home	Draw	Away	Reason	Record
1	18 Oct 18:09	48%	28%	24%	Stats preview	#172

Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Esenler Erokspor: last 6

DWLDLD · 4 scored, 8 conceded

15 Oct	at Manisa F.K.	1–1	D
10 Oct	at İstanbulspor	1–0	W
19 Sep	vs Fatih Karagümrük	0–2	L
13 Sep	at Bursaspor	2–2	D
7 Sep	vs Kayserispor	0–3	L
3 Sep	at Bodrum FK	0–0	D

Last 4 at home: LLLD

Mardin 1969: last 6

WWLLWD · 6 scored, 5 conceded

15 Oct	vs Fatih Karagümrük	1–0	W
11 Oct	at Bursaspor	2–1	W
20 Sep	vs Kayserispor	0–1	L
13 Sep	at Iğdır FK	0–1	L
7 Sep	vs Bodrum FK	1–0	W
2 Sep	at Sivasspor	2–2	D

Last 5 away: WLDWD

Season stats

Esenler Erokspor		Mardin 1969
0.60	Goals scored per game	1.20
1.10	Goals conceded per game	0.60
0.25	Scored per game at home	1.00
0.83	Scored per game away	1.40
20%	Matches over 2.5 goals	30%
40%	Both teams scored	30%
30%	Clean sheets	50%
50%	Failed to score	30%

League matches only, 10 games each.

Turkish 1. Lig table

#	Team	Pld	Goal diff.	Points	League form
4	Batman Petrolspor	12	+4	23	WDWLL
5	Keçiörengücü	11	+10	20	WDWDD
6	Muğlaspor	12	+4	18	WWLDD
7	Mardin 1969	11	+4	18	LWWLL
8	Antalyaspor	12	-1	18	LWLWW
9	Bodrum FK	12	+4	17	WWWLD
10	Fatih Karagümrük	12	+1	16	WLLDW
…
12	Bandırmaspor	12	+7	14	LLDWL
13	Ümraniyespor	11	+3	13	WWDWL
14	Sivasspor	12	-3	13	LDDWD
15	Esenler Erokspor	12	-4	12	LWDWL
16	Pendikspor	12	-9	11	DLLLD
17	Manisa F.K.	11	-2	10	LDLLD
18	Vanspor FK	12	-9	10 −2	WLWLL