Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Fatih Karagümrük 39%)
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 53% · ✓ 3 goals
In short
Fatih Karagümrük are slight favourites at 39%, with Keçiörengücü on 35% and the draw on 26%. Fatih Karagümrük are 12th and Keçiörengücü 7th in the Turkish 1. Lig. In their last five league games, Fatih Karagümrük won one and Keçiörengücü two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Fatih Karagümrük win or draw
- 65%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Keçiörengücü win or draw
- 61%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 31%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Fatih Karagümrük and 1.4 from Keçiörengücü. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% | 26% | 35% | Stats preview | #133 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Fatih Karagümrük: last 6
LDWDLD · 8 scored, 8 conceded
| 15 Oct | at Mardin 1969 | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Muğlaspor | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Esenler Erokspor | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Manisa F.K. | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Batman Petrolspor | 3–4 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs Kayserispor | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DDDWW
Keçiörengücü: last 6
DWDDWW · 9 scored, 2 conceded
| 14 Oct | vs Iğdır FK | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Bodrum FK | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Sivasspor | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Vanspor FK | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Sarıyer | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Sep | at Boluspor | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WDWDL
Season stats
| Fatih Karagümrük | Keçiörengücü | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 1.90 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.80 |
| 30% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 60% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
Turkish 1. Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Iğdır FK | 12 | +8 | 26 | WWDWD |
| 3 | Bursaspor | 11 | +13 | 25 | WWLWD |
| 4 | Batman Petrolspor | 12 | +4 | 23 | WDWLL |
| 5 | Keçiörengücü | 11 | +10 | 20 | WDWDD |
| 6 | Muğlaspor | 12 | +4 | 18 | WWLDD |
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | +4 | 18 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 12 | -1 | 18 | LWLWW |
| 9 | Bodrum FK | 12 | +4 | 17 | WWWLD |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | +1 | 16 | WLLDW |
| 11 | Sarıyer | 12 | -3 | 16 | LDLDW |
| 12 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | +7 | 14 | LLDWL |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | +3 | 13 | WWDWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük won 3, Keçiörengücü 3, 0 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr 2025 | Fatih Karagümrük | 1–0 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Keçiörengücü | 0–1 | Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| 12 Jul 2020 | Keçiörengücü | 3–0 | Fatih Karagümrük | 1. Lig |
| 22 Dec 2019 | Fatih Karagümrük | 0–2 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 29 Apr 2017 | Keçiörengücü | 2–3 | Fatih Karagümrük | 2. Lig |
| 17 Dec 2016 | Fatih Karagümrük | 1–2 | Keçiörengücü | 2. Lig |
Match context
- Rest days
- Fatih Karagümrük 4Keçiörengücü 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Fatih Karagümrük 2 · Keçiörengücü 2
- Referee
- Muhammetali Metoglu
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
