St Mirren vs Dundee prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
St Mirren to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 58% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: Dundee's stronger form, better away scoring and head-to-head edge make the home side's 42% look slightly generous, with the sceptic closest to the published prices. On goals, the coach's scoring-rate case for over 2.5 is tempered by a low-scoring recent head-to-head, leaving the 58% line roughly fair.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Dundee's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Dundee favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth sides score often enough for goals, but St Mirren leak far too much at home.
St Mirren concede 1.89 per game and kept clean sheets in just 33% of matches, while Dundee score 1.25 per game away and failed to score only 11% of the time.
Dundee: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSt Mirren's five-match losing run makes this a must-stop slide against a confident Dundee.
St Mirren sit 8th on 10 points from 9 games, having lost five straight, while Dundee are 4th on 14 points and unbeaten in three. With equal rest (7 and 6 days, one game each in 14), pressure sits firmly on the home side.
Dundee: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market's 42% for St Mirren looks generous given the head-to-head record.
Yet the published 58% for over 2.5 sits above that low-scoring H2H trend, so I lean under.
St Mirren: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
St Mirren are slight favourites at 42%, with Dundee on 32% and the draw on 26%. St Mirren are 8th and Dundee 4th in the Scottish Premiership. In their last five league games, St Mirren won none and Dundee two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- St Mirren win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Dundee win or draw
- 58%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.6 goals from St Mirren and 1.4 from Dundee. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 26% | 32% | Stats preview | #710 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
St Mirren: last 6
LLLLLW · 3 scored, 14 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Aberdeen | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Heart Of Midlothian | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Dundee Utd | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Sep | at Rangers | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Celtic | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | at Kilmarnock | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: LLDW
Dundee: last 6
DWWLDL · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Rangers | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Falkirk | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Motherwell | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | at Heart Of Midlothian | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Sep | vs ST Johnstone | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Hibernian | 1–2 | L |
Last 4 away: WLWL
Season stats
| St Mirren | Dundee | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.44 |
| 1.89 | Goals conceded per game | 1.11 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.60 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 56% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 11% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Scottish Premiership table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | +10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 10 | +7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | +0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | +2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | St Mirren | 10 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | +0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: St Mirren won 1, Dundee 4, 1 draw; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | Dundee | 1–0 | St Mirren | Premiership |
| 31 Jan 2026 | St Mirren | 0–0 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Dundee | 3–1 | St Mirren | Premiership |
| 27 Sep 2025 | St Mirren | 1–0 | Dundee | Premiership |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Dundee | 2–0 | St Mirren | Premiership |
| 29 Dec 2024 | St Mirren | 1–2 | Dundee | Premiership |
Match context
- Rest days
- St Mirren 7Dundee 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: St Mirren 1 · Dundee 1
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
